With reference to the current situation of the real estate industry, the home furnishing industry has not been greatly affected, but in view of the ripple reaction of the real estate market to the home furnishing industry, changes in the home furnishing industry will appear within a few months to half a year after the introduction of the system. (The home furnishing industry is affected by the new real estate policy. You can refer to the table below) At the same time, the author believes that the home furnishing industry can appropriately adjust the short-term development strategy of the enterprise after the introduction of the real estate new policy, and better adapt to and adjust the industrial structure before the market changes. To avoid the impact of national policy.
The author believes that the development trend of the real estate market is: soaring-the suppression of the New Deal, wait and see-volume and price fell-the policy is fully released, house prices are stable-rigid demand drives a new round of house prices. The response of the home furnishing industry is relatively lagging. What will happen to the home furnishing industry when the property market is extinguished? Let's analyze together.
The property market turbulence, the home furnishing industry "ripple effect" response lags behind
In the face of the introduction of the new real estate policy, the property market is the most sensitive and the reaction is relatively strong. According to the latest statistics released by Weijia Anjie, a professional personal lending institution, one week after the introduction of the mortgage portfolio (April 19-25), the transaction volume of the Beijing mortgage market has decreased compared with the previous week (April 12-18) About 15%. Well-known economists analyzed that the real estate market will enter the observation period in April, and the cycle should be about two to three months. During this period, consumers will wait for the implementation of the government's regulatory policies, and judge the timing of buying a house by observing the implementation of the subsequent operating rules in Document 10. After the observation period, the real estate market in major cities across the country (mainly in the first- and second-tier cities where house prices have recently risen rapidly) will usher in a situation in which prices and volumes have both fallen, and the market as a whole has entered an adjustment period.
However, the home furnishing industry is in the downstream of the real estate industry. Under the influence of the ripple reaction, the home furnishing industry, including the furniture industry, home textile industry, food and beverage supplies industry, decoration industry, decoration industry, etc., will have 2-3 months The lag period, during this period, they will not be affected by the property market.
The decline in the property market transaction volume brings good home furnishing industry
Shortly after the new policy of the property market came out, the home furnishing industry ushered in the first golden week after regulation. Under the influence of the lagging response, May 1st Golden Week will become a great period for home furnishing companies to make large-scale promotion and commission sales. Therefore, April and May are welcome for the sales performance of home furnishing enterprises.
Frustrated at the front line
In May, June and July, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the property market is strong. After the May Day promotion, the home terminal consumer market will also enter a period of weak sales when the property market transaction volume drops sharply.
The New Deal in the property market is beginning to bear fruit, and transaction volume has fallen sharply. The speculation of the real estate speculators' transfer to other industries and the wait-and-see attitude of rigid demanders has led the decoration industry to gradually enter a weak stage. The decoration industry suffered a setback, and the chain reaction was the weak sales of furniture and home textiles.
The follow-up policy of real estate in 2011 clarifies Xiaoyangchun
Under the influence of the market economy, peaks and troughs will appear alternately. After the emergence of the property market trough in 2010, with the continuous introduction of the real estate new policy, the country's policy intervention in the property market has gradually become clear, the wait-and-see mood of buyers has weakened, and rigid demand still exists, and the property market price has landed steadily Later, a new buying craze will start again, which will drive the development of the home furnishing industry's sales, making the home furnishing industry ushered in a small spring after sales decline.
The rebound after the trough is expected, and we cannot understand it when we carefully interpret the policies issued by the state-the purpose of the national policy for the property market is to "contain the excessive rise in housing prices in some cities and effectively solve the housing problem of urban residents." Fundamentally suppressing the development of real estate, after more than a year of adjustment, the property market price has become reasonable, and at the same time consumers' enthusiasm for purchase will also promote the favorable development of the home furnishing industry. Since April 16, 2010, after more than a year of house price adjustments will be gradually completed
The overall situation has been decided how to deal with the home furnishing industry?
The above has made an analysis of the impact of the new policy of the housing market on the home furnishing industry. It is more general and probably illustrates a process that the author believes will go through during the adjustment period of the housing market. The overall picture has been determined. What measures should the home industry take to deal with the negative impact of the policy before sales decline?
See the market demand and do what they want
For speculative home buyers, it is still possible that they will still invest their funds in the real estate market before alternative investment channels emerge. However, when the prices of residential properties have dropped significantly, they may choose commercial properties such as shops and office buildings, and real estate operators may also choose to develop in this direction, leading to an increase in the proportion of commercial properties. After such a situation is formed, it will definitely have an impact on the low-end market of the home furnishing industry.
As we all know, speculative home buyers do not bring real economic benefits to the home furnishing industry. Rather, the rigid consumers who are not conspicuous and those who want to improve housing are the main force of terminal consumption, that is, they control the sales performance of the home furnishing industry.
For the decoration needs of rigid demanders, the purpose of their decoration is to improve the quality of life. Therefore, when choosing large household items or decoration materials, they tend to compare with mid-to-high-end products because the low-end household items market will be impacted. In this market background, home furnishing companies should adjust their development strategies and product production ratios as soon as possible, so as to expand their market share during the chaotic period of the property market. The so-called speculation is based on profit.
Contradiction between supply and demand highlights the enthusiasm of the industry to improve efficiency
Due to the inaccurate expectations of the market and the unfavorable factors such as the introduction of the national policy, the rapid expansion of the home industry's production capacity and market expectations and the relatively shrinking market demand will create a difficult contradiction. Therefore, using scientific and technological means to improve work efficiency and reduce product costs is the best way for enterprises to survive the chaotic period. In the negative market environment, home furnishing companies will also arouse the enthusiasm of industry technology to improve efficiency, the product quality of the home furnishing industry will be improved to a certain extent, and the reduction in product costs will help home furnishing companies successfully overcome difficulties!
Looking forward to the "post-war" property market
When I talked to the marketing director of an enterprise, I still remembered what he said-household products should be FMCG! With the development of the market, people's consumption level and taste of life have improved, and sofas, coffee tables, and old-style decoration styles in the home will be replaced. "A set of furniture with a lifetime" will always be history, and "changing furniture like changing clothes" will make the home furnishing industry enter a new era of efficient development! Of course, this will take time, and at the same time, it requires home furnishing companies to draw on successful experience, properly adjust the industrial structure, and accelerate the pace of technology efficiency and cost reduction ... I believe that the home furnishing industry will be more beautiful tomorrow!
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