Abstract 2015 is coming to an end. China’s fourth quarter macroeconomic data is also in the midst of the New Year’s countdown clock, and the Chinese economy will have to hand over an annual transcript. What is the direction of China’s economic policy in 2016? The world's attention...
2015 is coming to an end. China's fourth quarter macroeconomic data is also in the midst of the New Year's countdown clock. The Chinese economy will have to hand over an annual transcript. What is the direction of China's economic policy in 2016? Eyes. Recently, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang wrote an article entitled "Blueprint for China's Economy" in the British "Economist" annual "World 2016", which mainly discusses the development direction of China's economy in 2016. On November 21st, Indian Prime Minister Modi said when he saw his old friend Li Keqiang: "I just saw that you published an article in the "Economist" year-end special issue to talk about China's economic development in 2016, which left a deep impression on me. ". Modi agreed with Prime Minister Li Keqiang's economic philosophy.
In the interpretation of the article, Hong Kong Commercial Daily believes that Li Keqiang’s article in The Economist aims to respond to outside doubts about the Chinese economy and dispel the international community’s doubts about China’s economic prospects. Experts say that if China's economy is to pick up, it must foster innovation and consumption. This requires steady progress in supply-side reform. Unless the Chinese economy can bottom out, the outside world's doubts about the Chinese economy will not stop.
Aside from the speculations of the parties on the intention of Premier Li Keqiang, in my opinion, this "Blueprint for China's Economy" mainly solves the following problems for us:
Where is the Chinese economy going?
Premier Li Keqiang believes that the strong combination of reform, opening up and international cooperation is the core element of China's growth story over the years. Therefore, in 2016, China will continue to deepen reform, expand opening up, and expand international economic cooperation.
The year 2015 was called the key year for comprehensive deepening reforms, and China's economic system reform has made great progress. For example, the reform of decentralization and decentralization has gradually advanced in depth. At present, 139 administrative examination and approval items have been further cancelled and decentralized, and the approval of non-administrative licenses has all been terminated. The reform of investment and financing systems is also being implemented steadily, encouraging private investment to participate in infrastructure and public services. In terms of construction and operation of the field, a PPP project library has been established, and 1,043 projects have been released with a total investment of 1.97 trillion yuan. At the same time, positive progress has also been made in price reforms, state-owned enterprises and reform of key industries...
2016 is the first year of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan". The Chinese government's recently announced "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" will insist on deepening reform as a whole to achieve a well-off society as scheduled. One of the six principles that must be followed in order to promote the healthy development of the economy and society. The recommendations point out that reform is a powerful driving force for development. In accordance with the overall goal of improving and developing the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, advancing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, we must improve the institutional system that enables the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation and better play the role of the government, with a focus on economic restructuring. We will speed up the improvement of various institutional mechanisms and mechanisms to remove all institutional and institutional obstacles that are not conducive to scientific development and provide sustained momentum for development. From this point of view, deepening reform is not only the macro policy direction that the Chinese government must adhere to in 2016, but also the policy principle of perseverance in the next five years. The proportion of economic system reform is self-evident, so Premier Li Keqiang said, “Deepening Reform is the way forward."
At the same time, in the just-concluded "three meetings and one country" foreign visit, Premier Li Keqiang said that China is promoting the "Belt and Road" construction and international capacity cooperation with East Asian countries. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund will provide this. Financing support. China will continue to expand its opening to the outside world and deepen its integration into the world economy. It is estimated that China's imports will reach 10 trillion US dollars in the next five years. He believes that in 2015, in the face of the global economic downturn and the challenges of multiple domestic contradictions, the Chinese economy is generally operating smoothly and maintained within a reasonable range. China is fully capable of maintaining rapid economic growth and moving towards the mid-to-high end level. To do this, it is because of the "combination of reform, opening up and international cooperation" that he mentioned in the article.
What is driving economic growth?
In the traditional sense, the study of macroeconomics generally believes that the troika is the driving force for economic growth, namely investment, exports and consumption. Premier Li Keqiang believes that China’s total economic output has exceeded 10 trillion US dollars. If it is to continue to develop in the future, excessive dependence on investment and export promotion will be unsustainable.
So, what is the future of the Chinese economy wanting to continue to maintain high-end growth? The answer given by Premier Li Keqiang is: "Promoting structural reforms." The core elements are “innovation-driven†and “consumption-drivenâ€. Therefore, the Chinese government should build a new model of sustainable growth that greatly increases innovation-driven and consumption-driven dynamics by vigorously promoting market-oriented reforms.
Premier Li Keqiang has expressed confidence in China's economic growth on many occasions. This confidence is not blind, but is based on the Chinese government's macro-control policy reserves and tools, rooted in its rich experience in dealing with various risk challenges. He mentioned in the article that the current government has not implemented quantitative easing, nor has it adopted a competitive currency devaluation. Instead, it has combined many policy instruments into two major economic growth engines, one is mass entrepreneurship and innovation, and the other is increased. Public goods, public service supply. Through these two engines, it can effectively stimulate domestic demand and improve people's livelihood.
In 2015, it was dubbed by the Chinese media people as the “first year of entrepreneurshipâ€. The “public entrepreneurship and innovation†promoted by the Chinese government, such as the fire of the Suiyuan, violently burned in the land of China. The government has created an environment suitable for innovation and entrepreneurship for market players through the reform of decentralization and delisting of power, and the reform of the commercial registration system, releasing the growth potential. According to incomplete statistics, China’s newly registered enterprises in the first three quarters of 2015 were 3.159 million. That is to say, since 2015, China has an average of about 300,000 new companies born every month, and more than 10,000 new companies are registered every day. This is a very surprising number. As a policy hot word, "Double Creation" has been well-deservedly ranked hot in the Internet search engine of this year. What is popular among young people in China today? No suspense is innovation and entrepreneurship. Premier Li Keqiang believes that young people can realize their ideals of life while solving their employment through entrepreneurship. For the society, it can promote social fairness and open up the flow of the class. In terms of enterprises, no matter big or small and medium-sized enterprises Only through continuous innovation can we be in an invincible position in the market competition.
Need to solve the problem?
Recently, the "supply-side reform" proposed by the central government has been frequently discussed by public opinion and academic circles. Some media commented that the State Council has issued two articles to boost "new consumption", which is to open the curtain for "supply-side reform". Supply-side reform "creates new impetus. Some analysts said that the central government has realized that the problem facing China is not the problem of insufficient demand, but the problem of supply side. This requires that in the future policy formulation, the supply side should be the main reform direction.
Premier Li Keqiang will increase the supply of public goods and public services as one of the engines that drive China's sustained economic growth. He is very optimistic about China's consumption potential. China has a population of 1.3 billion and 300 million middle-income people. China's urbanization rate is just over 50%, which is far from the developed countries. These provide a broad space for China's economic growth. In his article, he pointed out: "Although the growth rate has slowed down, the Chinese economy is moving in the direction we are looking forward to in the direction of more domestic demand and innovation."
Some scholars pointed out that although China's current consumption potential is very large, 300 million middle-income people, but this part of the consumption potential may not be released at home, many people go abroad to enjoy foreign consumption and services, thus proposing the current economic development of China. The problem of "contradictory supply and demand". As the living standards of Chinese people continue to improve, they have more diverse needs for consumption and services, such as purchasing products to pursue more refined, branded, personalized, and purchasing public services such as pension, medical care, insurance, etc. More human needs, if Chinese products and services can not meet their growing consumer demand, then inevitably will lead to consumer outflows.
How to solve this problem? Premier Li Keqiang gave the "prescription" to improve the competitiveness of traditional industries and promote "Made in China" to the next level. This year's government work report first proposed the implementation of "Made in China 2025." In mid-May, the State Council issued "Made in China 2025" and deployed a comprehensive strategy to promote manufacturing. Premier Li Keqiang believes that "Internet + Shuangchuang + China Manufacturing 2025, combined with each other for industrial innovation, will give birth to a 'new industrial revolution.'"
As the world's second largest economy, China's development will bring tremendous opportunities for world economic development. Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in his article that "the world is hard to be rich, and the development of China's 1.3 billion people can contribute to supporting world economic growth. The growth involving billions of people will bring to the commodity market, manufacturing industry and the wider field. Great opportunity!†The ancient China, which was deeply influenced by Confucian culture for thousands of years, embraced the world with its open attitude and welcomed the world. China’s development is as inclusive and exclusive as China’s culture. China will continue to push higher. The horizontal opening up to the outside world at the same time carries out all-round international cooperation, so we have reason to believe that "2016, the scenery here is good!"
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