The third quarterly report of A-share photovoltaic (PV) listed companies has been fully released, revealing a positive trend in the industry. Most firms have turned profitable since the third quarter, signaling the end of a two-year downturn that has plagued the solar sector. Industry experts believe that the recent surge in ground-mounted power station projects has driven this recovery. As the year comes to a close, the construction phase of these projects is nearing completion, while policy support for distributed PV systems is gaining momentum.
Analysts from the new energy sector predict that with continued government backing, distributed photovoltaics could see a 400% growth next year, potentially replacing the current rush for large-scale installations and sparking a new wave of PV applications. "Only projects approved before September 1 and connected to the grid by December 31 will qualify for a 1 yuan per kWh subsidy," said a PV power plant contractor interviewed by the Shanghai Securities News. "Next year, the subsidy rate will drop to 0.9 yuan per kWh, which has triggered a massive construction boom."
Due to tight weather conditions, many civil works were compressed into just two months, creating a surge in demand for PV modules. As a result, module prices have risen from 3.8 yuan per watt to 4.2–4.5 yuan per watt. This situation was confirmed by Hebei Yingli Group, which reported that its production lines are operating around the clock, with some orders already placed for next year. This marks the first time in years that the industry has experienced such high demand.
However, as winter sets in, construction activities in the northwestern region—where most of the large-scale projects are located—are expected to slow down. While shipments of PV products remain high, prices for silicon materials, crystalline wafers, and components have slightly declined. According to a Minsheng Securities research report, after the installation rush, large centralized power plants are expected to grow steadily next year, with improvements in grid connection and subsidy issues.
Experts estimate that this installation wave may absorb up to 40% of domestic production capacity, ensuring reasonable profits across the industry.
**Distributed PV: A New Growth Driver**
The enthusiasm for ground-mounted projects hasn’t cooled down, but attention is now shifting toward distributed photovoltaics. According to reports from authoritative sources, detailed policies on distributed PV projects are about to be released. To accelerate adoption, the government plans to streamline approval processes for such projects. Previously, provinces like Shandong and Zhejiang had already introduced supportive policies, effectively boosting the distributed PV market.
Yingli Group highlights the strong potential of distributed PV in Shanxi and Shaanxi, where the company is actively training installers and expanding through franchise partnerships. Analysts believe that with ongoing policy support, distributed PV could take over from the current large-scale rush, leading to a new wave of growth and possibly a 400% increase in the coming year. This would provide a solid foundation for the performance of power plant developers in 2024.
Additionally, financing challenges that once plagued the industry are beginning to ease. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice encouraging banks to support the PV sector, emphasizing its long-term potential. The notice also urged banks to avoid blanket restrictions on the industry. As a result, PV companies have been removed from the banking "blacklist."
Industry expectations are high, with many believing that with proper policies in place, the PV market is set for explosive growth. According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, companies with strong capital and project reserves, such as Sunshine Power and Dongfang Risheng, are likely to capture excess returns. Meanwhile, Shenyin Wanguo’s report suggests that upstream materials like glass covers and coated glass may also rebound, with Amarton and CSG A benefiting from technological advantages and favorable policies.
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