The third quarterly report of A-share photovoltaic (PV) listed companies has been fully released, revealing that most firms have turned profitable in the third quarter. This marks a turning point for the industry, which has endured two years of difficult conditions. Industry insiders believe that the recent surge in ground-mounted power station projects has driven this recovery. As the year comes to an end, the construction phase of these large-scale projects is nearing completion, while policy support for distributed PV systems is gaining momentum.
Analysts from the new energy sector predict that with continued government backing, distributed PV is set to experience a 400% growth next year, potentially replacing the current rush in ground-mounted installations and ushering in a new wave of PV demand.
"Only projects approved before September 1st and connected to the grid by December 31st will qualify for the 1 yuan per kWh subsidy. Next year, this rate will drop to 0.9 yuan per kWh, which has triggered a massive construction boom for large-scale ground-mounted PV plants," said a PV developer interviewed by the Shanghai Securities News. Due to weather constraints, many civil works were compressed into just two months, leading to a surge in demand for PV modules. As a result, module prices have risen from 3.8 yuan per watt to 4.2–4.5 yuan per watt, with companies now needing to pay in cash to secure supply.
This trend was confirmed by Hebei Yingli Group, which reported that its production lines are operating around the clock, with some orders already booked for next year. This situation is considered a rare moment of strong performance in the otherwise struggling PV industry.
However, as winter sets in, construction activities—mainly concentrated in the northwest region—will begin to slow down. According to an analyst, although PV product shipments have remained high, the prices of silicon materials, crystalline wafers, and solar cells have seen slight declines. Research from Minsheng Securities suggests that after the installation rush, large centralized power plants will continue to grow steadily next year, with improvements in grid connection and subsidy issues expected.
Some experts estimate that this wave of installations could absorb up to 40% of domestic PV production capacity, ensuring that all parts of the industry maintain reasonable profit margins.
**Distributed PV Could Be a Huge Market**
The rush hasn’t cooled down yet, and interest in distributed PV is rising sharply. According to reports from authoritative sources, detailed policies on distributed PV projects are about to be released. To accelerate adoption, the government plans to simplify the approval process for such projects. Previously, provinces like Shandong and Zhejiang had already introduced supportive policies, which helped drive the distributed PV market forward.
Yingli Group highlights the great potential of distributed PV in Shanxi and Shaanxi, where the company is training numerous installers through franchise agreements to expand its presence in this segment. Analysts believe that with continued policy support, distributed PV may soon replace the current ground-mounted installation boom, sparking a new wave of growth. They expect a 400% increase in 2024, providing a solid foundation for future performance of power plant developers.
In addition, financing challenges that have long plagued the industry are beginning to ease. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice encouraging banks to support the healthy development of the PV sector. The notice urged financial institutions to avoid blanket restrictions on the industry. Many PV companies reported that this move officially removed them from the banking "blacklist."
Industry expectations are high, with many believing that once policies are in place, the PV market will see explosive growth. A CITIC Construction Investment report highlighted that companies with strong capital and project reserves are likely to capture excess returns, including Sunshine Power and Dongfang Risheng. Meanwhile, Shenyin Wanguo’s research pointed to upstream materials such as glass cover and coated glass, which are expected to recover from their profitability lows, with Amarton and CSG A standing out due to their technological advantages and policy support.
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