The duration of policy effectiveness is equally difficult to estimate and is generally considered to be at most in the first half of 2013. After the policy effectiveness is weakened, the problem of overcapacity will once again be highlighted. At present, China's overcapacity has expanded from industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and automobiles to coke, calcium carbide, ferroalloy, copper smelting, textile, chemical fiber and other industries. In emerging industries, such as carbon fiber, wind power, polysilicon, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc., there have been overcapacity. Low-level homogenization competition and price wars have led to a sharp drop in corporate profits. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 12.7% year-on-year. At the same time, the problem of corporate triangle debt has increased, and the debt situation of some enterprises has deteriorated.
If the export situation and overcapacity situation are once again severe, the government is likely to continue to grow steadily in 2013, thus stimulating investment to accelerate growth again. According to the prediction of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2012 China's fixed assets investment in the whole society was 375.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; in 2013, it increased by 19.9%, reaching 449.88 billion yuan. From the general market forecast, the growth rate in both years is low. According to the forecast of the China Investment Association, the year-on-year growth of 21% in 2012 and 24% in 2013 will definitely exceed 45 trillion yuan in 2013.
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