Abstract "The steel is about 50 million tons and the coal is more than 150 million tons. At the same time, it is necessary to phase out, stop construction, and slow down the coal power production capacity of more than 50 million kilowatts." On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang reported on the government work (hereinafter referred to as &ldqu.. .
"The steel is about 50 million tons and the coal is more than 150 million tons. At the same time, it is necessary to phase out, stop construction, and slow down the coal power production capacity of more than 50 million kilowatts." March 5, Premier Li Keqiang's report on government work (hereinafter referred to as "report") The target for capacity reduction in 2017 was determined. In this year, the intensity and difficulty of de-capacity will increase. In 2016, the false-reported capacity and backward production capacity in the market have been squeezed out. In 2017, the production capacity will be a real de-capacity. It is necessary to be alert to the repeated increase in coal steel prices. At the same time, difficult issues such as employee placement are also urgently needed to be resolved.
Capacity expansion
At the press conference of the National New Office on January 10 this year, Xu Shaoshi, then director of the National Development and Reform Commission, made it clear that this year's capacity will be expanded in addition to steel and coal. Some areas with low capacity utilization and serious excess capacity are also Will be included in the scope of capacity reduction.
Xiao Yaqing, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, also recently said that this year, central enterprises will expand their production capacity from coal and steel to industries with overcapacity such as non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding, refining, building materials and electricity.
First Financial Day conducted a survey of 21 chief economists at domestic and foreign financial institutions. A total of 18 economists believe that the production capacity will be extended from the steel and coal industries to other overcapacity industries. As for which industries will be included in the new focus of capacity, 13 chief economists believe that the non-ferrous metals and marine sectors are most likely to become new focus; 11 believe that it will be the building materials sector.
On January 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the six ministries and commissions issued the Action Plan for the Deepening Structural Adjustment of the Shipbuilding Industry to Accelerate Transformation and Upgrading (2016~2020). Li Dong, director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the media that the Chinese shipbuilding industry has reduced the capacity of 80 million DWT in 2012 to 65 million DWT at the end of 2015. However, there are still inefficient production capacity, and the Chinese shipbuilding industry must be incarcerated. It is estimated that more than 30% of excess capacity will be cut.
Accelerating de-capacity and mergers and acquisitions in the shipbuilding industry is the general trend. According to industry analysts, 2017 is expected to become a key year for China's shipbuilding industry. The integration of the North and South Ships (CSSC and CSIC) will break the big probability. The current disorderly competition between the two ships has greatly hindered the ability to take orders. Continued such repeated construction will not be conducive to the survival and development of the two major shipping companies in a downturn.
Recently, the State Council has jointly launched a special supervision on the elimination of backward production capacity in the cement and glass industries. The ministerial leadership led the team into 8 inspection teams, and the cement and glass industries of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. Special inspections were carried out to eliminate backward production capacity.
Xu Lejiang, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said on the 7th of the China Building Materials Federation that it would vigorously promote the production capacity of traditional building materials, and at the same time attach great importance to the development of new materials industry, and promote advanced inorganic non-materials such as glass-based materials, advanced ceramics and artificial crystals. Emerging industries such as metal materials, mineral functional materials and composite materials are developing to make up for shortcomings.
At the G20 Hangzhou Summit last year, President Xi Jinping and then US President Barack Obama reached a consensus during the meeting. The two sides will work together to address the global overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum.
Liu Zhe, assistant to the president of the Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, told the First Financial Reporter that China is a country with more copper and less aluminum. There is a surplus of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. The whole industry is basically in a state of loss, and the capacity utilization rate has been around 70%. Resolving the overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum is conducive to improving the prosperity of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Through the continuous and effective exit of the supply end, the supply and demand relationship of the aluminum industry will be improved, and the aluminum price will be supported.
Game of price rebound
The difficulty of going to capacity this year will increase. Jiang Zhimin, vice president of China Coal Association, said in the media that many coal mines that had been in production capacity last year were in a state of suspension or semi-discontinuation. Therefore, it is relatively easy to shut down, but this year’s production capacity will all involve the current normal production of coal mines. There will be no fewer people than last year.
In the process of de-capacity, there is a contradiction between rigid de-capacity policies and flexible demand fluctuations. The supply of some industries cannot respond to changes in demand in a timely manner, resulting in insufficient supply of stages and localities, which in turn leads to prices and enterprises. The profits have risen sharply, which has reduced the willingness to de-capacity.
The coal industry in 2016 can be described as “sweeping the hazeâ€. With the advancement of capacity, coal companies have ushered in an overall rebound in profits. According to the data released by the China Coal Industry Association, the total profit of the national coal enterprises after subsidies was 32.08 billion yuan, an increase of 363.7% year-on-year; the cost expense profit rate was 1.35%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year.
In response to the question of whether the rise in steel prices will lead to the resurgence of steel producers, the National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Zhao Chenxi once said in the media that strict control of new production capacity is not determined to crack down on new steel production capacity and illegal production and control of steel products. To resolve the excessive capacity and even engage in local protection, to act as a protective umbrella for illegal production capacity and for the production and sale of local steel companies, and to inform the relevant leaders and related staff in a serious manner.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that due to the rising prices of steel and coal, there has been some recurrence of production capacity. This year's industrial policy should be coordinated with macroeconomic policies such as fiscal and monetary.
Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities, wrote in December that the 2017 capacity-removal policy could be properly optimized while maintaining the existing tone. The de-capacity on the supply side and the steady growth on the demand side need to be organically combined, and the capacity to be more flexible, and more to play the role of industry self-discipline.
In addition, de-capacity should be combined with technology upgrades and industrial layout adjustments. Xu Gao said that the 2017 production capacity policy can have more room to pay attention to the long-term healthy development of related industries. Correspondingly, the industry's metabolism can be promoted by guiding technological advancement and improving environmental protection requirements, and achieving optimization and upgrading of the industry while suppressing overcapacity.
How to place millions of employees
Li Keqiang pointed out in the report that the demolition capacity must be well-placed, and the central government special awards and funds should be paid in a timely manner. Local governments and enterprises must implement relevant funds and measures to ensure that the employment of the diverted workers has a way out and life is guaranteed.
Li Chunhui, secretary general of the China Employment Promotion Association, said in the media that according to the data of the steel industry association and the survey data, the employment multipliers of the related industries in the steel and coal industries are at least 1:4 and 1:2.5 respectively. According to the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†During the period, the number of employees directly involved was 500,000 and 1.3 million. It is expected that during this period, the number of employees directly and indirectly involved in the production capacity of these two industries will exceed 5 million.
Yin Weimin, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, said at a press conference of the State Council Office on March 1 that it is a key task to resolve excess capacity and resettle the diverted workers. Last year, 726,000 people were resettled. This year, about 500,000 people need to be resettled to resolve excess capacity. They will continue to adhere to the principle of corporate main body, local organization, and compliance with laws and regulations.
For the work of de-capacity, the central budget has allocated 100 billion yuan as a special award fund for the diversion of employees. Li Chunhui said that this fund is far from meeting the needs. Some enterprises have enjoyed the subsidies for the subsidies of aid enterprises in accordance with the regulations, which helps employees to be diverted and resettled. However, due to the current policy, difficult enterprises that fail to pay unemployment insurance premiums are unable to enjoy policy support. Enterprises that are ready to withdraw are more difficult to enjoy the policy of assisting enterprises to stabilize their posts, which makes it difficult for the current unemployment insurance policy to play a greater role.
Li Chunhui believes that vigorously developing flexible employment is an important option to ease the pressure on diversion and resettlement workers. The local government and relevant departments should comprehensively improve the flexible employment policy and give strong support. In the use of special funds for employment, it is necessary to count the subsidies of flexible workers into large accounts for protection. Through these practical measures, we will guide, encourage and support the diversion of workers to achieve flexible employment.
Yin Weimin said at the above-mentioned press conference that this year, we will continue to implement various policies for employee placement, especially the four most important channels for diversion, including internal circulation, internal retirement, transfer employment and entrepreneurship, and the bottoming of public welfare posts. In particular, for those who have difficulty in employment such as “4050â€, it is necessary to increase vocational training and job introduction to implement their jobs one-on-one.
Jiang Yaodong, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice president of China University of Mining and Technology, said during the two sessions this year that it would take a long time to resolve the overcapacity and could not be rushed. In the process of de-capacity, the government can set up a special staff resettlement fund and adopt a diversified staff resettlement method. This is where administrative means should be exerted.
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