On February 11, the General Administration of Customs announced the latest statistics on China's foreign trade import and export in January: the total value of imports and exports was 141.8 billion US dollars, down 29% over the same period of last year; of which exports fell by 17.5% and imports fell by 43.1%. As previously predicted, China’s import and export in January 2009 recorded a record double-digit decline for more than a decade, with negative growth for three consecutive months.
Among the major foreign trade provinces and cities, exports in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang fell by 23.6%, 19.1% and 16.6%, and 17.4% respectively, while imports fell by 42.1%, 49.7%, 43.3% and 36.8% respectively.
The General Administration of Customs said that such data is largely affected by the Spring Festival factor. If the Spring Festival factor is removed, exports will increase. Because of the Spring Festival holiday, January was 5 working days less than last January. If the effect of the working day was removed, the value of exports in January increased by 6.8% compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, from January, the number of January was 6 fewer than that of December last year. On the working day, after the impact was removed, the export value in January increased by 10.1% compared with December last year.
However, Zhang Bin, deputy director of the International Finance Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that according to his calculations, after removing seasonal factors, China’s exports in January should fall by 8%, and imports should decrease. It is 10%.
"The speed of such decline has been quite rare in the past ten years," Zhang Bin said.
The deeper the dependence on the global industrial chain, the greater the decline in exports
In the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the export column shows that of the 25 key countries and regions that China exports, only Canada has achieved a growth of 2.5%, and all other negative growth. Among China's top five export destinations, exports to the EU fell by 17.4%, exports to the US fell by 9.8%, exports to Japan fell by 9.0%, exports to ASEAN fell by 21.9%, and exports to Hong Kong fell by 35.4%.
Among the key export commodities of the customs statistics, the mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products that occupy half of China's exports and contribute to the export have become the “hardest hitâ€: the overall decline of mechanical and electrical products was 20.9%, and the export of electrical and electronic products decreased by 28.3%. Machinery and equipment fell by 16%; high-tech products exports fell by 28%, of which computers fell by 24.3% and mobile phones by 30.1%.
“The main reason is that the processing trade is greatly affected.†Yan Gang, director of the Electronic Information Industry Department of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronics, told this reporter: “With mobile phones as an example, the high-speed export growth of about 50% has been maintained in the past few years, now the world The economy is declining, foreign consumer confidence is insufficient, and the speed of mobile phone replacement is slowing down. In 2009, the growth rate of exports may be only about one digit."
However, Yan Gang said that such influence is mainly reflected in the processing trade dominated by multinational corporations. In contrast, the domestic emerging self-operated export enterprises have achieved small scale, flexible operation methods and weak dependence on the global industrial chain. Must grow.
Among the labor-intensive products that were previously widely concerned by the government and the public, the export of clothing, footwear and luggage has increased. Compared with the 5.7% increase in clothing, yarn and textile fabrics fell by 12.3%, the first negative growth in the past four years.
"This shows that other countries are far more affected by the financial crisis than China." Researcher Zhao Yumin of the Ministry of Commerce said that from January's data, China is in the middle of the international industrial chain division of products, such as textile fabrics for export. Products remanufactured and processed in other countries have a downward trend. China's exports of products for investment in other countries, such as steel billets, steel, and aluminum, fell by 100%, 53.8%, and 66.3%, respectively. Instead, some of the general trade-oriented terminal textile products have outperformed the market due to the rigid consumption of foreign countries and achieved rare growth.
"From the perspective of the whole year, the export situation of this part of the product may be relatively better than other products, and the growth rate is slower than that of the previous years, but it is not too big and too fast." Zhao Yumin said.
The most affected by the decline in processing trade and mechanical and electrical products is Guangdong, China's largest foreign trade province. According to customs statistics, in January, Guangdong's exports fell by 23.6%, exceeding the national rate of decline by 6.1 percentage points.
For another big foreign trade province, Zhejiang, Zheng Yumin, the director of the provincial industrial and commercial bureau, told reporters on the 9th that the trend of economic “recovery†is clear, but the reality of “still cold†is severe. Take the commercial ship passing through Zhejiang sea area as an example. In October last year, the traffic volume decreased by 12%, in November it decreased by 15%, in December it decreased by 29%, and in January it decreased by 52%.
A number of foreign trade and economic system officials told reporters that they still believe that the first half of the year is the "life and death" of export enterprises. If the economy of developed countries begins to recover in the second half of the year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products may rebound rapidly. "The current export to the United States has gradually shown some signs of recovery, but exports to Europe are still very poor." Liu Yongqiang, director of the Home Appliances Department of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronics, said.
The Ministry of Commerce will promote the global manufacturing of China
Despite the rapid decline in exports, China’s foreign trade surplus reached 39.1 billion in January, more than double the amount in January last year. This is also the third consecutive month of China's trade surplus of about 40 billion US dollars since the decline in exports last November.
The General Administration of Customs said that this was due to the drop in the price of imported products. In January, the price of iron ore imported by China fell by 37%, the price of crude oil fell by 53.3%, and the price of refined oil fell by 50.8%. Therefore, the total value of China's imports of primary products in January was 13.85 billion US dollars, a sharp drop of 50.3%. At the same time, imported industrial products fell by 39.9%.
"Importile imports, reflecting that although domestic measures have been taken to expand domestic investment and stimulate domestic demand, domestic investment and production have not yet fully recovered." Zhang Bin said.
But what worries the foreign trade sector is that the surplus is still growing rapidly, which may exacerbate China's trade frictions. An official of the Fair Trade Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce told this reporter that according to their statistics, since the fourth quarter of last year, the anti-dumping and countervailing measures initiated by other countries in the world against China have increased significantly.
An official told this reporter that in March the Ministry of Commerce will be led by several deputy ministers to organize Chinese enterprises to go to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and other regions that seem to be less affected by the financial crisis to conduct a series of economic and trade cooperation negotiations. With a view to opening up new markets and alleviating the losses caused by the economic downturn in developed countries to China's exports. For example, Vice Minister of Commerce Fu Ziying will lead home appliances and automobile companies to visit Jordan, Morocco and Niger. According to Chinese statistics, in 2008 China's export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products to the above three countries was as high as 93.11%, 34.97% and 1195.25% respectively.
However, an official of the China Household Electrical Appliances Industry Association said that although a large province of home appliances and processing trade such as Guangdong is very enthusiastic about “export to domestic salesâ€, China’s household electrical appliances have a serious excess capacity, and the domestic market cannot make up for the impact of insufficient external demand on the entire industry.
"Insufficient external demand, even if the Chinese government introduces policies, it can only affect the prices of export products, and the risk of trade friction." Zhang Bin said: "The key is to revitalize the domestic service industry to bring more employment opportunities. Can make up for the impact of the decline in exports."
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