In October, the consensus composite index, which comprehensively reflected the macroeconomic performance, continued to rise sharply and has risen for nine consecutive months. In October, among the 10 police indicators, the year-on-year growth rate of M1, the fiscal revenue, the financial institutions' RMB loans, the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment, and the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month were in the “overheated†red light district; The growth rate of power generation has entered the “hot†light yellow area from the “normal†green light district in September. The industrial added value growth rate is located in the green light district for three consecutive months; the CPI enters the “cold†by the “cold†dark blue light district. The light blue light district, the growth rate of total import and export and the sales revenue of industrial enterprises continue to stay in the dark blue light district.
The October leading and consensus composite index, the comprehensive police index and various composition indicators show that under the combined effects of various factors, China's macroeconomic sentiment will continue to increase. It is estimated that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 will exceed 10%, and the annual GDP growth rate will be around 8.5%. It should be noted that the sharp increase in economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year, one of the important factors is the lower year-on-year base formed by the rapid decline in economic growth in the same period last year. This cannot be ignored when analyzing the economic growth in the fourth quarter.
First, the consensus index and the leading index continued to rise sharply. In October, the consensus composite index that comprehensively reflected the macroeconomic performance continued to rise sharply, and has now risen for nine consecutive months. Among the five indicators that constitute a consistent composite index, after seasonal adjustment, power generation, fiscal revenue, and industrial enterprise added value have shown a rapid upward trend since January 2009, both from the deep blue light district, the industrial value added Already close to the upper edge of the green light district, the power generation has entered the middle of the yellow light district, and the fiscal revenue has entered the red light district; the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment and the total retail sales of social consumer goods have stabilized at a high level in the month, and have been operating in the red light district for a long time. The growth rate of asset investment increased slightly, and the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined in the month.
In October, the leading synthetic index describing the future economic trend continued to rise sharply. From the composition indicators of the leading synthetic index, after the seasonal adjustment, the five indicators of the reversal index of finished product capital, steel output, M1 growth rate, cargo throughput of coastal ports, and new construction area of ​​commercial housing all continued to rise.
The comprehensive police index continued to rise in the green light district. The comprehensive police index reflecting the macroeconomic situation returned to the green light district in June and continued to rise rapidly. The comprehensive police index for the month reached 65, close to the upper edge of the green light district. Among the 10 indicators that constitute the comprehensive police index, 9 indicators showed an upward trend, and only the actual growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased.
In October, among the 10 police indicators, the year-on-year growth rate of M1, the fiscal revenue, the financial institutions' RMB loans, the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment, and the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month were in the “overheated†red light district; The growth rate of power generation has entered the “hot†light yellow area from the “normal†green light district in September. The industrial added value growth rate is located in the green light district for three consecutive months; the CPI enters the “cold†by the “cold†dark blue light district. The light blue light district, the growth rate of total import and export and the sales revenue of industrial enterprises continue to stay in the dark blue light district.
The trend of the first and the consensus composite index, the comprehensive police index and various component indicators in October indicate that under the combined effects of various factors, China's macroeconomic sentiment will continue to increase. We expect that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 will exceed 10%, and the annual GDP growth rate will be around 8.5%. At the same time, we must also realize that the important factor for the sharp increase in economic growth in the fourth quarter was the lower year-on-year base formed by the rapid decline in economic growth in the same period last year. In November and December of 2009, the base of the same period of last year dropped sharply. From November 2008 to December 2008, the growth rate of industrial added value dropped sharply, 5.4% and 5.7% respectively. The actual growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 was Only 6.8%.
II. Changes in major economic prosperity indicators 1. The growth rate of industrial added value has increased substantially, and it is close to the upper edge of the green light district. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.1% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, which was the sixth consecutive month of accelerated growth. From the ring point of view, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.8% in October from the previous month. Although it fell by 0.3 percentage points from September, it continued to accelerate. From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.4%, 0.7 percentage points faster than that of January-September. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of industrial added value continued to rise sharply in the green light area, which is close to the upper edge of the green light area. The low base year and strong demand are the two key reasons for the continuous increase in industrial value added.
Heavy industry continued to be the main force driving the recovery of industrial production, and the growth of light industry declined slightly. In October, the added value of light industry increased by 11.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; heavy industry increased by 18.1%, 3.3 percentage points faster than last month, the highest growth rate since April last year.
In terms of regions, the central region rebounded strongly. In October, the industrial added value of the eastern, central and western regions increased by 13.9%, 18.9% and 21.7% respectively, which was 1.5, 4 and 2.8 percentage points higher than last month. In terms of provinces and cities, in October, the above-scale industries in 31 provinces all achieved double-digit growth, of which 18 provinces grew by more than 20%, an increase of four provinces from the previous month.
In October, all 39 major industries maintained year-on-year growth, with 396 of the 494 products producing year-on-year growth. In terms of industries, (1) the growth rate of raw materials industry has risen sharply. In October, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 21.3% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points faster than that in September. (2) The growth of the equipment industry is accelerating. In October, the added value of the equipment industry increased by 18.6%, 1.8 percentage points faster than last month. (3) The growth rate of the consumer goods industry declined slightly. The added value of the consumer goods industry increased by 12.6% in the month, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. (4) The electronics manufacturing industry continued to rebound. The added value of the electronics manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month.
2. The cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment has been running at a high level. From January to October, urban fixed asset investment increased by 33.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from January to September. After the seasonal adjustment, the cumulative growth rate of urban fixed asset investment has been running smoothly at the high level in the red light district, and the growth rate has increased slightly.
In October, government investment continued to weaken. First, the growth rate of central project investment has dropped for four consecutive months since July. Second, the government invested mainly in infrastructure projects such as railways, highways, and water conservancy, as well as rural hydropower, medical and health, education and culture, etc., and the related industries experienced a slowdown in the second half of the year. Third, the growth rate of funds in the national budget in the source of investment funds in the second half of the year continued to fall slightly.
At the same time, social investment led by real estate investment is starting. First, the growth rate of real estate development investment continued to rise rapidly. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment rebounded rapidly from 1% in January-February to 18.9% in January-October. Second, local investment has stabilized at a high level. From January to October, local project investment increased by 34.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the first half of the year. Third, the growth of non-state-owned and state-controlled investment has accelerated. From January to September, China's non-state-owned and state-controlled investment increased by 29.5%, an increase of about 6 percentage points year-on-year.
The industries in which investment growth slowed down in October were mainly concentrated in the following areas. First, some light industry. Second, there are industries with overcapacity. As two leading indicators of investment growth, the growth of investment funds continued to accelerate, but the growth rate of new construction projects has slowed down. Since the second half of the year, the growth rate of investment funds has continued to rise slightly, and the source of investment funds is abundant.
3. The actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month was slightly lower in the red light district. The actual growth rate of consumption in October accelerated again. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.2% in nominal terms, with a real increase of 17.7%, an increase of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points from September respectively. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods actually increased by 17.2% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. After the seasonal adjustment, the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month was slightly lower in the red light district.
After a short period of two consecutive months, the actual growth rate of consumption in October has accelerated again, which is related to the “11†holiday consumption boom this year. If the seasonal factors such as holidays are eliminated, the chain will increase by 1.4% in October, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate in September, which is a relatively stable growth rate in this year. The country's policy measures to expand domestic demand and promote consumption in response to the financial crisis have not diminished, and commodities are still the main driving factor for the growth of the consumer goods market.
4. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 month-end balance continued to rise sharply in the red light district. At the end of October, the narrow money supply (M1) balance was 20.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.03%, 2.53 percentage points higher than the end of last month. After the seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year growth rate of the M1 month-end balance continued to rise sharply in the red light district.
5. The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans of financial institutions continued to rise in the red light district. In October, the scale of new RMB loans in the month was lower than market expectations, which was the lowest in the year. However, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions at the end of the month was 39.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.19%. The growth rate was 15.46 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, higher than the end of last month. 0.03 percentage points, the growth rate is further improved. After the seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year growth rate of the financial institutions' RMB loans at the end of the year increased further in the red light district.
In October, new RMB loans were only 253 billion yuan, still a new high in the same month in recent years, but hit a new low in the year. The scale of new loans in the month was also much lower than the level of 300 billion to 400 billion yuan that was generally expected in the market. From January to October, the accumulated loans of the RMB increased by 8.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.26 trillion yuan over the same period of the previous year.
The reduction in the size of new loans in the month was affected by three factors. First, the regulatory authorities warned of the risks. In mid-October, the China Banking Regulatory Commission made a reminder of the credit risk in the process of industrial restructuring. The CBRC also required all banks to strictly implement the “second home loan†policy. Second, the “time-point†factor of the end-of-season loan in October disappeared. Third, the National Day holiday in October reduced the number of loanable days in the month, which is the objective reason for the decline in loans this month.
6. The CPI enters the cold blue light zone from the cold blue light zone. In October, CPI fell by 0.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and a PPI of 5.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. After the seasonal adjustment, the CPI enters the “cold†light blue light area from the “too cold†dark blue light area.
From the perspective of CPI composition, in October, the prices of eight major categories of commodities showed a “three rises and five declines†year-on-year. Among them, food prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year, and prices of tobacco, alcohol and supplies rose by 1.3% year-on-year. The price of supplies increased by 1.2% year-on-year; the decline was: clothing prices fell by 1.6% year-on-year, household equipment supplies and maintenance services prices fell by 1.2%, transportation and communications prices fell by 2.7%, entertainment and education supplies and services prices The year-on-year decline was 0.7%, and the residential price fell by 3.8%.
In October, the PPI rose by 0.1% from the previous month, and has risen for six consecutive months, in line with previous expectations. However, the PPI rebound momentum showed signs of slowing down. Combined with the rapid recovery of industrial production in China, the PPI has continued to decline, indicating that the overcapacity of the industrial system is still relatively serious, which has inhibited the rapid recovery of PPI to some extent.
7. The growth rate of power generation continued to rise sharply, and the green light district entered the yellow light district. In October, power generation enterprises above designated size generated 31.21 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of power generation continued to rise sharply, and the green light district entered the yellow light district. In October, the national total electricity consumption was 313.423 billion kwh, an increase of 15.87% year-on-year, an increase of 5.63 percentage points over September, and continued to maintain a warming trend. From January to October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 297.754 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%.
8. The growth rate of total import and export remained in the dark blue light district, but continued to rise slightly. In October, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the month was 197.54 billion US dollars, down 10.7% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points higher than that in September. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of total import and export stayed in the dark blue light district and continued to rise slightly.
In October, the import and export situation showed a certain differentiation, and the decline in exports continued to narrow. It has stabilized for hundreds of millions of dollars for four consecutive months, but the decline in imports has expanded. Exports in October fell by 13.8% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from September, the lowest drop this year. Monthly exports exceeded US$100 million for four consecutive months; imports fell by 6.4% year-on-year, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. The surplus reached 23.98 billion U.S. dollars in the month, an increase of 11.05 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month, the highest value since February this year.
In the past two months, China’s export situation has continued to improve. In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the new export order index was 54.5%, which has been above 50 for six consecutive months. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries are higher than 50%, and 5 industries have reached 60%. the above.
9. The fiscal revenue has increased substantially and has moved up to the red light zone. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 684.493 billion yuan, an increase of 151.598 billion yuan or 28.4% over the same month last year. Among them, the central level income of 380.343 billion yuan, an increase of 37%; local level income of 304.15 billion yuan, an increase of 19.2%. After the seasonal adjustment, the fiscal revenue growth rate went up to the red light district.
In October, fiscal revenue grew rapidly. Apart from the economic recovery and the related tax revenue growth, it was mainly affected by factors such as lower income in October last year, lower base, and higher consumption tax after the reform of refined oil tax and fees this year.
Financial market and securities market operation 1. Currency and bond market 1. The central bank opened the market to operate a net withdrawal of funds. After the "11" holiday, the central bank's open market operations began to increase the withdrawal of funds. A total of 716 billion yuan of funds were withdrawn from the central bank bill and the repurchase operation during the month. After deducting the central bank bill and the repurchase due, the central bank’s open market operation realized a net return of 150 billion yuan this month, which was the first time since the second half of the year that there was a net return of monthly funds. In October, the central bank bill issuance rate and the positive repo rate remain unchanged. The 3-month central bank bill issuance rate remains at 1.328%, and the 1-year central bank bill issuance rate remains at 1.761%. The 28-day and 91-day repurchase rates are respectively Stay at 1.18% and 1.33%.
2. In the inter-bank market, RMB transactions were stable and market interest rates rose slightly. In October, the cumulative turnover of RMB transactions in the inter-bank market was 8.04 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 472.9 billion yuan. The average daily turnover decreased by 0.38% year-on-year, with an average daily turnover of 1.8 billion yuan. Affected by the net withdrawal of funds from the open market operations and the opening of the GEM, the interest rate in the money market increased slightly. The monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank market interbank lending in October was 1.30%, up by 0.03 percentage points from the previous month; the monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repo was 1.30%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous month.
3. The amount of inter-bank pledged repo transactions decreased. In October, the amount of pledged repo transactions in the interbank market was 4,080.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,347.4 billion yuan from the previous month, a decrease of 36.52%. From the perspective of the average daily net financing direction, in October, the national commercial banks were the main financial lenders of the pledged repo, and the average daily net financing balance was 253.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 96.7 billion yuan from the previous month. Other major institutions have shown a net infusion of funds.
4. The total amount of bond issuance decreased, and the proportion of long-term debt issuance increased. In October, affected by the “11†holiday, the issuance of all types of bonds decreased. There were 62 bonds issued in the inter-bank market, with a total issued amount of 738.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 612.63 billion yuan from the previous month.
5. Inter-bank spot trading was light, and the China Bond Index was down. In October, the settlement amount of inter-bank bond transactions was 263 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous month, a decrease of 49.71%. Due to the light trading of spot bonds, the bond turnover rate dropped sharply, and the bond turnover rate of the whole market dropped from 32.21% in the previous month to 15.98% in this month. The turnover rate of each type of coupons has decreased, especially the medium-term notes are the most obvious, with a drop of 51.91%.
From the perspective of net bond sales, in October, securities companies and credit unions were the main net sellers of bonds, with net sales of 41.9 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of net buyers, fund purchases The scale is large, and the purchase amount is 40 billion yuan. After the China Bond Index fell sharply in October, it oscillated and stabilized. In October, the bond yield curve showed a clear short-term decline and a long-term uptrend. Among them, ultra-short-end interest rates have fallen sharply, while interest rates for various maturities of more than one year have generally risen.
Second, the stock market The scale of market financing is at a relatively high level. In October, despite the significant decline in the A-share market due to the National Day holiday, the total size of market financing remained high. Among them, the initial financing of new shares was 20.203 billion yuan, the financing for additional financing reached 25.764 billion yuan, the financing for share placement was 754 million yuan, and the financing for convertible bonds was 2.546 billion yuan.
2. The stock market has developed first and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2840.13 points at the beginning of the month. On October 23, it reached the highest point of 3123.46 points this month, and then gradually fell. At the end of the month, it closed at 2995.85 points, and the closing index rose 7.79% from the end of September. In October, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 202.336 billion yuan, roughly the same as in September.
3. The market average static P/E ratio is at a relatively high level. At the end of October, the average static P/E ratio of the Shanghai market was 25.98 times, and that of the Shenzhen market was 39.58 times, which was 74.83% and 131.06% higher than the end of 2008, respectively, which is already at a relatively high level. Therefore, under the pressure of funds brought about by the current non-accelerated reduction of size and greater market financing pressure, the market valuation risk cannot be ignored.
4. The size of the share reform has not been reduced. In October, the size of the share reform was not to lift 60.724 billion shares, of which 493 million shares were lifted, and 60.231 billion shares were lifted. The size of non-reduction of 832 million shares, of which large non-reduction of 459 million shares, small non-reduction of 372 million shares. As of the end of October, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had cumulatively generated 476.374 billion shares of restricted shares, and the stocks of unremoved shares were limited to 158.596 billion shares, with a cumulative reduction of 38.549 billion shares.
Countermeasures and recommendations 1. Stabilize the real estate market, promote the development of small businesses, and strive to promote employment. The continuous rise in real estate prices has not only ruined the housing dreams of most urban residents and urban farmers who have no housing, but also greatly raised the threshold of urban entrepreneurship, increasing the risk of urban entrepreneurship, which is not conducive to the establishment and development of small businesses. Reduced employment opportunities and employment opportunities, and delayed the urbanization process.
In order to vigorously develop small enterprises, especially to develop small-scale service enterprises, in addition to providing tax incentives, loan support, personnel training, and information services, it is necessary for governments at all levels to solve the problem of land use for building enterprises and reduce The cost of land use provides a relatively relaxed environment for the establishment and development of small businesses.
2. Pay more attention to structural adjustment and transformation of development methods. The first is to increase investment in science and technology. Continue to increase support for public welfare research institutions and support the implementation of major science and technology projects. The use of subsidies, interest subsidies, taxes, prices and other supporting policies and the role of government investment to promote private capital investment in independent innovation and industrial upgrading, resource conservation and environmental protection and other fields.
The second is to increase investment in ecological construction and environmental protection, promote resource tax reform, and accelerate the establishment of a relatively complete fiscal and taxation policy system that encourages energy, resource conservation and environmental protection.
The third is to formulate preferential policies that encourage the use of energy-saving technologies and energy-saving products, and guide enterprises to accelerate technological transformation centering on energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, a preferential tax rate will be applied to the production or sales process of energy-efficient new products, and appropriate tax incentives will be given to enterprises providing energy-saving services to promote the development of energy-saving industries.
The fourth is to improve the implementation of tax incentives to support the development of SMEs. The study established the National SME Development Fund and the SME Credit Guarantee Fund to strengthen coordination with social funds and support the development of SMEs.
3. Promote the smooth delivery of credit and actively guide the adjustment of credit structure.
To maintain the continuity of the credit policy, we must maintain a stable total and structural optimization. In terms of total control, it is necessary to promote the smooth delivery of credit, ensure the support of credit policies for government investment plans, and cooperate with the implementation of active fiscal policies to do a good job of stabilizing and stimulating domestic demand, while appropriately controlling the scale of credit and preventing excessive credit expansion. It is necessary to grasp the strength, rhythm and methods of structural adjustment, guide the structural adjustment of loan placement through window guidance, promote and consolidate the economic recovery, and guide the adjustment and optimization of economic structure.
The first is to standardize bank credit, block the policy loopholes of bank funds and credit flows, and urge commercial banks to make credit flows to the real economy. The second is to actively guide commercial banks to make structural adjustments to credit supply. While maintaining a reasonable growth in infrastructure construction loans, it will solve the problem of power switching from economic growth to market autonomy. Credit supply should be tilted in the direction of effectively promoting private investment and consumption growth.
The October leading and consensus composite index, the comprehensive police index and various composition indicators show that under the combined effects of various factors, China's macroeconomic sentiment will continue to increase. It is estimated that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 will exceed 10%, and the annual GDP growth rate will be around 8.5%. It should be noted that the sharp increase in economic growth in the fourth quarter of this year, one of the important factors is the lower year-on-year base formed by the rapid decline in economic growth in the same period last year. This cannot be ignored when analyzing the economic growth in the fourth quarter.
First, the consensus index and the leading index continued to rise sharply. In October, the consensus composite index that comprehensively reflected the macroeconomic performance continued to rise sharply, and has now risen for nine consecutive months. Among the five indicators that constitute a consistent composite index, after seasonal adjustment, power generation, fiscal revenue, and industrial enterprise added value have shown a rapid upward trend since January 2009, both from the deep blue light district, the industrial value added Already close to the upper edge of the green light district, the power generation has entered the middle of the yellow light district, and the fiscal revenue has entered the red light district; the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment and the total retail sales of social consumer goods have stabilized at a high level in the month, and have been operating in the red light district for a long time. The growth rate of asset investment increased slightly, and the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined in the month.
In October, the leading synthetic index describing the future economic trend continued to rise sharply. From the composition indicators of the leading synthetic index, after the seasonal adjustment, the five indicators of the reversal index of finished product capital, steel output, M1 growth rate, cargo throughput of coastal ports, and new construction area of ​​commercial housing all continued to rise.
The comprehensive police index continued to rise in the green light district. The comprehensive police index reflecting the macroeconomic situation returned to the green light district in June and continued to rise rapidly. The comprehensive police index for the month reached 65, close to the upper edge of the green light district. Among the 10 indicators that constitute the comprehensive police index, 9 indicators showed an upward trend, and only the actual growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased.
In October, among the 10 police indicators, the year-on-year growth rate of M1, the fiscal revenue, the financial institutions' RMB loans, the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment, and the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month were in the “overheated†red light district; The growth rate of power generation has entered the “hot†light yellow area from the “normal†green light district in September. The industrial added value growth rate is located in the green light district for three consecutive months; the CPI enters the “cold†by the “cold†dark blue light district. The light blue light district, the growth rate of total import and export and the sales revenue of industrial enterprises continue to stay in the dark blue light district.
The trend of the first and the consensus composite index, the comprehensive police index and various component indicators in October indicate that under the combined effects of various factors, China's macroeconomic sentiment will continue to increase. We expect that the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 will exceed 10%, and the annual GDP growth rate will be around 8.5%. At the same time, we must also realize that the important factor for the sharp increase in economic growth in the fourth quarter was the lower year-on-year base formed by the rapid decline in economic growth in the same period last year. In November and December of 2009, the base of the same period of last year dropped sharply. From November 2008 to December 2008, the growth rate of industrial added value dropped sharply, 5.4% and 5.7% respectively. The actual growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 was Only 6.8%.
II. Changes in major economic prosperity indicators 1. The growth rate of industrial added value has increased substantially, and it is close to the upper edge of the green light district. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.1% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, which was the sixth consecutive month of accelerated growth. From the ring point of view, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.8% in October from the previous month. Although it fell by 0.3 percentage points from September, it continued to accelerate. From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.4%, 0.7 percentage points faster than that of January-September. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of industrial added value continued to rise sharply in the green light area, which is close to the upper edge of the green light area. The low base year and strong demand are the two key reasons for the continuous increase in industrial value added.
Heavy industry continued to be the main force driving the recovery of industrial production, and the growth of light industry declined slightly. In October, the added value of light industry increased by 11.3% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; heavy industry increased by 18.1%, 3.3 percentage points faster than last month, the highest growth rate since April last year.
In terms of regions, the central region rebounded strongly. In October, the industrial added value of the eastern, central and western regions increased by 13.9%, 18.9% and 21.7% respectively, which was 1.5, 4 and 2.8 percentage points higher than last month. In terms of provinces and cities, in October, the above-scale industries in 31 provinces all achieved double-digit growth, of which 18 provinces grew by more than 20%, an increase of four provinces from the previous month.
In October, all 39 major industries maintained year-on-year growth, with 396 of the 494 products producing year-on-year growth. In terms of industries, (1) the growth rate of raw materials industry has risen sharply. In October, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 21.3% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points faster than that in September. (2) The growth of the equipment industry is accelerating. In October, the added value of the equipment industry increased by 18.6%, 1.8 percentage points faster than last month. (3) The growth rate of the consumer goods industry declined slightly. The added value of the consumer goods industry increased by 12.6% in the month, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. (4) The electronics manufacturing industry continued to rebound. The added value of the electronics manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month.
2. The cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment has been running at a high level. From January to October, urban fixed asset investment increased by 33.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from January to September. After the seasonal adjustment, the cumulative growth rate of urban fixed asset investment has been running smoothly at the high level in the red light district, and the growth rate has increased slightly.
In October, government investment continued to weaken. First, the growth rate of central project investment has dropped for four consecutive months since July. Second, the government invested mainly in infrastructure projects such as railways, highways, and water conservancy, as well as rural hydropower, medical and health, education and culture, etc., and the related industries experienced a slowdown in the second half of the year. Third, the growth rate of funds in the national budget in the source of investment funds in the second half of the year continued to fall slightly.
At the same time, social investment led by real estate investment is starting. First, the growth rate of real estate development investment continued to rise rapidly. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment rebounded rapidly from 1% in January-February to 18.9% in January-October. Second, local investment has stabilized at a high level. From January to October, local project investment increased by 34.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the first half of the year. Third, the growth of non-state-owned and state-controlled investment has accelerated. From January to September, China's non-state-owned and state-controlled investment increased by 29.5%, an increase of about 6 percentage points year-on-year.
The industries in which investment growth slowed down in October were mainly concentrated in the following areas. First, some light industry. Second, there are industries with overcapacity. As two leading indicators of investment growth, the growth of investment funds continued to accelerate, but the growth rate of new construction projects has slowed down. Since the second half of the year, the growth rate of investment funds has continued to rise slightly, and the source of investment funds is abundant.
3. The actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month was slightly lower in the red light district. The actual growth rate of consumption in October accelerated again. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.2% in nominal terms, with a real increase of 17.7%, an increase of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points from September respectively. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods actually increased by 17.2% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. After the seasonal adjustment, the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month was slightly lower in the red light district.
After a short period of two consecutive months, the actual growth rate of consumption in October has accelerated again, which is related to the “11†holiday consumption boom this year. If the seasonal factors such as holidays are eliminated, the chain will increase by 1.4% in October, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate in September, which is a relatively stable growth rate in this year. The country's policy measures to expand domestic demand and promote consumption in response to the financial crisis have not diminished, and commodities are still the main driving factor for the growth of the consumer goods market.
4. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 month-end balance continued to rise sharply in the red light district. At the end of October, the narrow money supply (M1) balance was 20.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.03%, 2.53 percentage points higher than the end of last month. After the seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year growth rate of the M1 month-end balance continued to rise sharply in the red light district.
5. The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans of financial institutions continued to rise in the red light district. In October, the scale of new RMB loans in the month was lower than market expectations, which was the lowest in the year. However, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions at the end of the month was 39.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.19%. The growth rate was 15.46 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year, higher than the end of last month. 0.03 percentage points, the growth rate is further improved. After the seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year growth rate of the financial institutions' RMB loans at the end of the year increased further in the red light district.
In October, new RMB loans were only 253 billion yuan, still a new high in the same month in recent years, but hit a new low in the year. The scale of new loans in the month was also much lower than the level of 300 billion to 400 billion yuan that was generally expected in the market. From January to October, the accumulated loans of the RMB increased by 8.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.26 trillion yuan over the same period of the previous year.
The reduction in the size of new loans in the month was affected by three factors. First, the regulatory authorities warned of the risks. In mid-October, the China Banking Regulatory Commission made a reminder of the credit risk in the process of industrial restructuring. The CBRC also required all banks to strictly implement the “second home loan†policy. Second, the “time-point†factor of the end-of-season loan in October disappeared. Third, the National Day holiday in October reduced the number of loanable days in the month, which is the objective reason for the decline in loans this month.
6. The CPI enters the cold blue light zone from the cold blue light zone. In October, CPI fell by 0.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and a PPI of 5.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. After the seasonal adjustment, the CPI enters the “cold†light blue light area from the “too cold†dark blue light area.
From the perspective of CPI composition, in October, the prices of eight major categories of commodities showed a “three rises and five declines†year-on-year. Among them, food prices rose by 1.6% year-on-year, and prices of tobacco, alcohol and supplies rose by 1.3% year-on-year. The price of supplies increased by 1.2% year-on-year; the decline was: clothing prices fell by 1.6% year-on-year, household equipment supplies and maintenance services prices fell by 1.2%, transportation and communications prices fell by 2.7%, entertainment and education supplies and services prices The year-on-year decline was 0.7%, and the residential price fell by 3.8%.
In October, the PPI rose by 0.1% from the previous month, and has risen for six consecutive months, in line with previous expectations. However, the PPI rebound momentum showed signs of slowing down. Combined with the rapid recovery of industrial production in China, the PPI has continued to decline, indicating that the overcapacity of the industrial system is still relatively serious, which has inhibited the rapid recovery of PPI to some extent.
7. The growth rate of power generation continued to rise sharply, and the green light district entered the yellow light district. In October, power generation enterprises above designated size generated 31.21 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of power generation continued to rise sharply, and the green light district entered the yellow light district. In October, the national total electricity consumption was 313.423 billion kwh, an increase of 15.87% year-on-year, an increase of 5.63 percentage points over September, and continued to maintain a warming trend. From January to October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 297.754 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%.
8. The growth rate of total import and export remained in the dark blue light district, but continued to rise slightly. In October, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the month was 197.54 billion US dollars, down 10.7% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points higher than that in September. After the seasonal adjustment, the growth rate of total import and export stayed in the dark blue light district and continued to rise slightly.
In October, the import and export situation showed a certain differentiation, and the decline in exports continued to narrow. It has stabilized for hundreds of millions of dollars for four consecutive months, but the decline in imports has expanded. Exports in October fell by 13.8% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from September, the lowest drop this year. Monthly exports exceeded US$100 million for four consecutive months; imports fell by 6.4% year-on-year, down 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. The surplus reached 23.98 billion U.S. dollars in the month, an increase of 11.05 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month, the highest value since February this year.
In the past two months, China’s export situation has continued to improve. In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the new export order index was 54.5%, which has been above 50 for six consecutive months. Among the 20 industries, 13 industries are higher than 50%, and 5 industries have reached 60%. the above.
9. The fiscal revenue has increased substantially and has moved up to the red light zone. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 684.493 billion yuan, an increase of 151.598 billion yuan or 28.4% over the same month last year. Among them, the central level income of 380.343 billion yuan, an increase of 37%; local level income of 304.15 billion yuan, an increase of 19.2%. After the seasonal adjustment, the fiscal revenue growth rate went up to the red light district.
In October, fiscal revenue grew rapidly. Apart from the economic recovery and the related tax revenue growth, it was mainly affected by factors such as lower income in October last year, lower base, and higher consumption tax after the reform of refined oil tax and fees this year.
Financial market and securities market operation 1. Currency and bond market 1. The central bank opened the market to operate a net withdrawal of funds. After the "11" holiday, the central bank's open market operations began to increase the withdrawal of funds. A total of 716 billion yuan of funds were withdrawn from the central bank bill and the repurchase operation during the month. After deducting the central bank bill and the repurchase due, the central bank’s open market operation realized a net return of 150 billion yuan this month, which was the first time since the second half of the year that there was a net return of monthly funds. In October, the central bank bill issuance rate and the positive repo rate remain unchanged. The 3-month central bank bill issuance rate remains at 1.328%, and the 1-year central bank bill issuance rate remains at 1.761%. The 28-day and 91-day repurchase rates are respectively Stay at 1.18% and 1.33%.
2. In the inter-bank market, RMB transactions were stable and market interest rates rose slightly. In October, the cumulative turnover of RMB transactions in the inter-bank market was 8.04 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 472.9 billion yuan. The average daily turnover decreased by 0.38% year-on-year, with an average daily turnover of 1.8 billion yuan. Affected by the net withdrawal of funds from the open market operations and the opening of the GEM, the interest rate in the money market increased slightly. The monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank market interbank lending in October was 1.30%, up by 0.03 percentage points from the previous month; the monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repo was 1.30%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous month.
3. The amount of inter-bank pledged repo transactions decreased. In October, the amount of pledged repo transactions in the interbank market was 4,080.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,347.4 billion yuan from the previous month, a decrease of 36.52%. From the perspective of the average daily net financing direction, in October, the national commercial banks were the main financial lenders of the pledged repo, and the average daily net financing balance was 253.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 96.7 billion yuan from the previous month. Other major institutions have shown a net infusion of funds.
4. The total amount of bond issuance decreased, and the proportion of long-term debt issuance increased. In October, affected by the “11†holiday, the issuance of all types of bonds decreased. There were 62 bonds issued in the inter-bank market, with a total issued amount of 738.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 612.63 billion yuan from the previous month.
5. Inter-bank spot trading was light, and the China Bond Index was down. In October, the settlement amount of inter-bank bond transactions was 263 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous month, a decrease of 49.71%. Due to the light trading of spot bonds, the bond turnover rate dropped sharply, and the bond turnover rate of the whole market dropped from 32.21% in the previous month to 15.98% in this month. The turnover rate of each type of coupons has decreased, especially the medium-term notes are the most obvious, with a drop of 51.91%.
From the perspective of net bond sales, in October, securities companies and credit unions were the main net sellers of bonds, with net sales of 41.9 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of net buyers, fund purchases The scale is large, and the purchase amount is 40 billion yuan. After the China Bond Index fell sharply in October, it oscillated and stabilized. In October, the bond yield curve showed a clear short-term decline and a long-term uptrend. Among them, ultra-short-end interest rates have fallen sharply, while interest rates for various maturities of more than one year have generally risen.
Second, the stock market The scale of market financing is at a relatively high level. In October, despite the significant decline in the A-share market due to the National Day holiday, the total size of market financing remained high. Among them, the initial financing of new shares was 20.203 billion yuan, the financing for additional financing reached 25.764 billion yuan, the financing for share placement was 754 million yuan, and the financing for convertible bonds was 2.546 billion yuan.
2. The stock market has developed first and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2840.13 points at the beginning of the month. On October 23, it reached the highest point of 3123.46 points this month, and then gradually fell. At the end of the month, it closed at 2995.85 points, and the closing index rose 7.79% from the end of September. In October, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 202.336 billion yuan, roughly the same as in September.
3. The market average static P/E ratio is at a relatively high level. At the end of October, the average static P/E ratio of the Shanghai market was 25.98 times, and that of the Shenzhen market was 39.58 times, which was 74.83% and 131.06% higher than the end of 2008, respectively, which is already at a relatively high level. Therefore, under the pressure of funds brought about by the current non-accelerated reduction of size and greater market financing pressure, the market valuation risk cannot be ignored.
4. The size of the share reform has not been reduced. In October, the size of the share reform was not to lift 60.724 billion shares, of which 493 million shares were lifted, and 60.231 billion shares were lifted. The size of non-reduction of 832 million shares, of which large non-reduction of 459 million shares, small non-reduction of 372 million shares. As of the end of October, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had cumulatively generated 476.374 billion shares of restricted shares, and the stocks of unremoved shares were limited to 158.596 billion shares, with a cumulative reduction of 38.549 billion shares.
Countermeasures and recommendations 1. Stabilize the real estate market, promote the development of small businesses, and strive to promote employment. The continuous rise in real estate prices has not only ruined the housing dreams of most urban residents and urban farmers who have no housing, but also greatly raised the threshold of urban entrepreneurship, increasing the risk of urban entrepreneurship, which is not conducive to the establishment and development of small businesses. Reduced employment opportunities and employment opportunities, and delayed the urbanization process.
In order to vigorously develop small enterprises, especially to develop small-scale service enterprises, in addition to providing tax incentives, loan support, personnel training, and information services, it is necessary for governments at all levels to solve the problem of land use for building enterprises and reduce The cost of land use provides a relatively relaxed environment for the establishment and development of small businesses.
2. Pay more attention to structural adjustment and transformation of development methods. The first is to increase investment in science and technology. Continue to increase support for public welfare research institutions and support the implementation of major science and technology projects. The use of subsidies, interest subsidies, taxes, prices and other supporting policies and the role of government investment to promote private capital investment in independent innovation and industrial upgrading, resource conservation and environmental protection and other fields.
The second is to increase investment in ecological construction and environmental protection, promote resource tax reform, and accelerate the establishment of a relatively complete fiscal and taxation policy system that encourages energy, resource conservation and environmental protection.
The third is to formulate preferential policies that encourage the use of energy-saving technologies and energy-saving products, and guide enterprises to accelerate technological transformation centering on energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, a preferential tax rate will be applied to the production or sales process of energy-efficient new products, and appropriate tax incentives will be given to enterprises providing energy-saving services to promote the development of energy-saving industries.
The fourth is to improve the implementation of tax incentives to support the development of SMEs. The study established the National SME Development Fund and the SME Credit Guarantee Fund to strengthen coordination with social funds and support the development of SMEs.
3. Promote the smooth delivery of credit and actively guide the adjustment of credit structure.
To maintain the continuity of the credit policy, we must maintain a stable total and structural optimization. In terms of total control, it is necessary to promote the smooth delivery of credit, ensure the support of credit policies for government investment plans, and cooperate with the implementation of active fiscal policies to do a good job of stabilizing and stimulating domestic demand, while appropriately controlling the scale of credit and preventing excessive credit expansion. It is necessary to grasp the strength, rhythm and methods of structural adjustment, guide the structural adjustment of loan placement through window guidance, promote and consolidate the economic recovery, and guide the adjustment and optimization of economic structure.
The first is to standardize bank credit, block the policy loopholes of bank funds and credit flows, and urge commercial banks to make credit flows to the real economy. The second is to actively guide commercial banks to make structural adjustments to credit supply. While maintaining a reasonable growth in infrastructure construction loans, it will solve the problem of power switching from economic growth to market autonomy. Credit supply should be tilted in the direction of effectively promoting private investment and consumption growth.
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