Abstract Whether it is struggling photovoltaics at the bottom of the valley, wind power that is close to photovoltaics, or the shale gas that is being restarted for nuclear power and lively bidding, for 2012, the past 2012 is a year worth remembering. And in 2013, China’s foreign oil...
For the photovoltaics that are struggling at the bottom of the valley, or the wind power that is close to the photovoltaics, or the nuclear power that is being restarted and the shale gas that is being tenderly tendered, for 2012, the past 2012 is a year worth remembering. In 2013, China’s dependence on foreign oil is about to break through 60%. This cruel number has sounded the alarm for China's energy security: if we do not accelerate our reliance on traditional non-renewable energy sources such as oil and coal, China's economic and social development will be difficult to maintain in the future.
Looking at domestic demand for photovoltaics
For China's photovoltaics, which have been in the past decade, 2012 is a winter-only year.
At the beginning of September 2012, the EU ignored the mediation of Germany and other countries to insist on “double opposition†to China's PV. In order to counter the EU, the Ministry of Commerce also announced in the beginning of November last year a "double-reverse" investigation of solar-grade polysilicon originating in the European Union, and a counterattack in the form of a trade war.
However, this does not help PV modules to open the gates that have been closed in the EU market. The domestic PV companies that were already in the storm have become more and more vulnerable after the heavy blow.
According to Wang Bohua, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, China’s PV products exports in 2012 will be about 13 billion yuan, down 40% year-on-year. At present, more than half of China's small and medium-sized PV module companies have stopped production, 30% of enterprises have reduced production significantly, 10% to 20% have reduced production or maintained efforts, and have begun to lay off employees at different levels.
However, it is gratifying that the 2012 PV trade war has become a driving force for the central and local governments to adjust the development strategy of the photovoltaic industry in 2013.
In November 2012, four ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Commerce and the National Energy Administration, and 36 banks urgently negotiated to save photovoltaic enterprises, and reached an agreement on “guaranteeing big and abandoning smallâ€, showing the policy of “over-support†by local governments and commercial banks. Reflection has begun.
Once the EU’s “double-reverse†ruling in the first half of 2013 finally came to the end, the industry will enter a new round of down cycle. Therefore, the development of the domestic PV product terminal market in 2013 is becoming more and more important.
In response to the domestic demand market, the government has recently introduced measures such as supporting free access to distributed photovoltaic power generation, the State Grid to cancel the charging of photovoltaic power generation, supporting solar photovoltaic buildings, and promoting photovoltaics to the countryside, and expanding the demand for the domestic terminal market as much as possible.
The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development", which was revised several times before, proposed that by the end of 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 21 million kilowatts and the annual power generation will reach 25 billion kilowatt hours. Focus on the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems in the central and eastern regions, and build a total installed capacity of 10 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation.
In addition, in 2012, Jiangsu, Shanxi and other provinces have formulated plans for the relevant photovoltaic industry, which will promote the construction of conventional large-scale photovoltaic power plants, making the domestic demand market in the first half of 2013 worthy of expectation.
In 2013, can the government's strength make China's PV industry die and die? This is the worst era, but it may also be the best time for those PV companies that have weathered the cold, or will usher in a new spring.
Wind power with uncertain future
The wind power industry, which has always been difficult to solve the problem of “abandoning the windâ€, can be called the “difficult brother of China’s photovoltaics†in 2012.
At present, China has already become the number one country in the world in terms of installed wind power. As of the end of 2012, the national installed capacity is expected to exceed 60 million kilowatts, and the power generation will exceed 100 billion kilowatt hours. However, in 2011, China’s wind power enterprises suffered losses of more than 5 billion yuan due to “abandonment of wind†power cuts. The national “abandonment of wind†exceeded 10 billion kWh, and up to 12% of wind power was wasted.
The phenomenon of “abandoning the wind†is related to the overproduction of wind power, the monopoly of the power grid and the reasons for grid connection technology.
He Jun, a senior researcher at Anbang Consulting, pointed out that China's lack of mechanisms to coordinate various policies on wind power issues is also one of the main reasons for “abandoning the windâ€.
Shi Pengfei, deputy director of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, also said that it is obviously unreasonable that the thermal power is still being compensated by wind power in accordance with the planned system.
Under the impact of the global financial crisis, wind power companies must face the increasingly difficult situation of financing for a long time.
In a thousand ways, the first solution to "abandoning the wind" has become the key to saving wind power.
Liu Qi, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said that in 2013, the National Energy Administration will improve the regulatory system and supporting policies, study and formulate a renewable energy power quota system, and promote the full guarantee purchase of wind power.
At the same time, in the future, China will strengthen the construction of power systems, expand the scope of allocation of wind energy resources, and promote the consumption of wind power in a larger power market. It will also adapt to the intermittent characteristics of wind power through innovative wind power utilization methods to promote wind power on-site elimination. Na.
At the same time, the government is also actively releasing the “bailout†signal: “China’s “Twelfth Five-Year†Renewable Energy Development Plan and Wind Power Development Plan†clearly states that by 2015, China’s wind power grid-connected capacity will reach more than 100 million kilowatts. In 2020, it will reach 200 million kilowatts. According to the calculation of 60 million kilowatts this year, China's wind power grid-connected capacity will more than double in the next 8 years.
In mid-December last year, the "Notice of the National Energy Administration on Printing and Distributing the Approval Plan for the Second Batch of Wind Power Projects in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" also pointed out that it was agreed to include the project with sufficient preliminary work and implementation of grid access conditions in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The second batch of plans to approve wind power projects totaled 14.92 million kilowatts.
However, it is still too early to judge that China's wind power will go out of the trough in 2013. Xiaoxin, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that the wind power industry is facing more difficulties than expected, and it will take time for the industry to optimize its structure.
2013 will be an important watershed for China's wind power, and it will be a battle to step forward or repeat the mistakes of photovoltaics.
At a time when the global economy has not yet recovered, the demand for wind power equipment is still shrinking sharply. The change of the industry's environment is not a one-off effort. It is not relying on a certain department to introduce a certain measure to turn the tide. Actively exploring overseas emerging markets and breaking through technological bottlenecks is the king of China's wind power development in 2013.
Cautious nuclear power and shale gas
Nuclear power and shale gas, which seem to be unrelated, both opened in 2012 for their long-term development.
China's nuclear power, which was in a good development trend, was officially restarted after 18 months of stagnation due to the impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011. On October 24, 2012, the Nuclear Power Safety Plan (2011-2020) and the Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power (2011-2020) were adopted at the State Council executive meeting, marking a new change in China's nuclear power policy.
Cao Jianlin, deputy minister of science and technology, said: "After the official launch of nuclear power construction, China's nuclear power development will be further promoted."
Almost at the same time, China’s nuclear power in 2012 ushered in another heavy news: at the end of October, the China National Rapid Reactor Project, a major project of the National “863†Program undertaken by the China Atomic Energy Academy, passed the acceptance of the Ministry of Science and Technology, marking the development of nuclear energy in China. The second step in the three-step development strategy of the PWR fast reactor has made a major breakthrough.
Compared with the currently used thermal reactors, fast reactors can not only make full use of uranium resources, but also effectively reduce environmental pollution, representing the future development direction of nuclear power.
According to the White Paper on China's Energy Policy (2012), the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 40 million kilowatts by 2015, equivalent to three times the current installed capacity. In December last year, the National Nuclear Safety Administration approved the Huaneng Shandong Shidaowan Nuclear Power Plant to pour the first tank concrete of the nuclear island foundation of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant demonstration project.
The 2012, prudent, limited restart and key technological breakthroughs will definitely have a profound impact on China's nuclear power construction in 2013 and beyond.
Although due to security considerations, the State Council executive meeting called for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†not to arrange inland nuclear power projects, but when the inland nuclear power plants will be restarted in the future is still a hot topic in the industry. Xu Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out that the inland nuclear power plant can be built. The key is to confirm whether it is harmless to the local environment and to have a deep understanding and argumentation on the geological conditions.
Also in 2012, the shale gas revolution in North America is profoundly affecting China, and many capitals are pouring in.
In March 2012, the Ministry of Land and Resources announced that the potential of shale gas geological resources in China is 134.42 trillion cubic meters, and the potential of recoverable resources is 25.08 trillion cubic meters (excluding Qinghai-Tibet). In September, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the establishment of the first national demonstration of shale gas exploration and development. In November, the Ministry of Finance announced that the subsidy standard for mining enterprises from 2012 to 2015 was 0.4 yuan/m3. In the following December, the second round of shale gas bidding by the Ministry of Land and Resources was announced, and a total of 17 state-owned enterprises and 2 private enterprises won the bid.
But behind this lively shale gas “feastâ€, there is no consistent view or conclusion on how the shale gas should develop. In 2013, how should China's shale gas develop?
As a representative of the academic community, Xie Kechang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out that China cannot completely copy the successful experience and technology that the United States has achieved. In the future, it is necessary to creatively develop engineering technologies, systems and mechanisms suitable for China's characteristics in light of China's objective reality.
Zhao Wenzhi, a professor-level senior engineer at China Petroleum Exploration and Production Branch, said that specific geological conditions and surface environment have determined that the development and utilization of shale gas in China will require a relatively long preparation period.
In addition, the major shale gas technology project, which is very popular in the scientific and technological community, is also being demonstrated intensively and is expected to be introduced in 2013.
Can shale gas set off a new energy revolution in China? Perhaps the arrival of 2013 can reveal more accurate information to people.
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