In the report, Gartner predicts that global smartphone sales will reach 1.5 billion units this year and will grow to 1.9 billion units by 2020.
The smartphone market is facing a dilemma that new models are hard to sell because consumers are no longer willing to pay for new smartphones that lack the necessary new features. At the same time, mobile operators have been phasing out subsidy programs, forcing consumers to buy new phones at full price, which has led to an extended cycle of upgrades. Vendors such as wireless carriers and Apple are promoting financing programs that offer new phones to consumers after only one year, but these plans are not attractive to all buyers.
Roberta Cozza, director of research at Gartner, said: "These programs don't appeal to all consumers because most users want to upgrade after two years or more. They do it, In particular, technology updates have become incremental rather than exponential."
In mature markets such as the US, Europe and Japan, smartphones have reached saturation levels, and new buyers are running low. The Gartner report shows that users in mature markets will not be upgraded every two and a half years or so. In contrast, high-end smartphone upgrades for emerging market users range from 2.2 to 2.5 years, while feature phones take at least three years.
In view of the saturation of mature markets, the smartphone industry has begun to shift its focus to markets such as India. It is expected that the number of smartphones sold in the Indian market will reach 139 million this year. But for most Indian consumers, high-end smartphones are something they can't afford. In India, the average selling price of mobile phones is below $70.
Gartner pointed out that for smartphone manufacturers, the Chinese market has had healthy growth opportunities, but now the Chinese market has reached saturation point, and it is expected that this state will remain in the next five years. (Tang Feng)
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