The outlook for steel companies in the second half of 2011 is worrying

In the high cost of iron ore and coking coal, especially after state-owned steel companies have lost the long-term advantage of iron ore, their complicated systems and the number of tons of steel are far higher than those of private enterprises, which is seriously restricting their own development. According to Jitongbao statistics, in July, 8 out of the 77 large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in the statistics made losses, with a loss of 10.4% and a loss of 815 million yuan. From January to July, the profit rate of product sales in the steel industry was only 3.08%, which was lower than the average profitability of the industrial sector.

In the first half of this year, the national key iron and steel enterprises realized a profit of 56.4 billion yuan, of which Baosteel’s first-half profits accounted for nearly one-tenth of the total profit of major national steel companies. Although Baosteel achieved a total operating income of 111.149 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, it achieved a net profit of only 5.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.91%.

Informed sources said that before Baosteel mainly expected auto parts, 70% of the profits were derived from the auto board, but this year the auto board is not easy to sell, so the profits naturally come down. It is expected that the net profit of Baosteel in the second half of the year will be much lower than in the first half of the year, and will drop sharply. "In the second half of the year, profits may be less than 1 billion yuan, only a single digit."

The WISCO shares seem to be in trouble. Before WISCO was mainly looking for oriented silicon steel to make money, but since Baosteel and other companies launched this project, the profit margin of WISCO in the field of oriented silicon steel also began to decline. Although WISCO's net profit in the first half of this year increased by 14.73% year-on-year to 1.226 billion yuan, the gross profit margin of the company's cold rolled steel (including oriented silicon steel) was only 11.04%, a sharp drop of 7.34% year-on-year.

It is worth noting that private steel companies' operating conditions are significantly better than state-owned steel companies. Compared with some private enterprises, large state-owned steel companies are hard to compete with long steel companies. Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association Party Committee, said that from the perspective of the structure of steel production, from January to July this year, 230.712 million tons of long products were produced, a year-on-year increase of 15.24%, while sheet production was 1,961.92 million tons, an increase of 9.92% year-on-year. The overall supply and demand situation, long products is better than the plate.” Reporter from the first half of the data can be seen through the Tongbao some private steel companies competitive advantage, such as the main assets of private steel companies in Hebei China Oriental Group achieved a net profit of 1.155 billion in the first half of this year Yuan, an increase of up to 44.58% year-on-year; Daye Special Steel and Nanjing Steel, which also belonged to private steel companies, also achieved growth in performance, with net profit rising 8.36% and 14.8% year-on-year respectively.

In addition, the high price of iron ore has become the biggest issue that restricts the profitability of the steel industry. Ji Tongbao news, from January to July this year, China imported 386.3443 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 7.81%. From January to July, the average import CIF of iron ore was US$162.76/ton, up 37.79% year-on-year. Based on this calculation, iron ore imports from January to July paid 63.264 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.113 billion US dollars over the same period, according to the exchange rate of 6.5, equal to more than 137.195 billion yuan, this year from January to July large and medium-sized steel enterprises to achieve profits of 65.208 billion Yuan 2.1 times is the 6.45% of the sales income of 2.1181 billion yuan from large and medium-sized steel enterprises from January to July.

This reporter learned that since the beginning of the year, iron ore suppliers have overestimated the demand for imported iron ore in China, especially in January-July, when China's domestic iron ore increased by 21.9% over the same period of last year, replacing the large ones. Some of the demand for imported iron ore, according to the actual demand for blast furnace production, from January to July imports of iron ore only need to increase 9.97 million tons, an increase of 2.62% over the same period the previous year, while the actual import growth of 7.81%, there are 5.19 The percentage point difference. Judging from the supply and demand relationship of the global iron ore seaborne trade, Yu Tingbiao, the observer of the International Tongbao, believes that the global oversupply factor is accumulating and will eventually push the unreasonable high price into the down channel. As the global economic recovery continues to slow down, the lack of social demand will inhibit the global steel industry's demand for imported iron ore. It is expected that the production of steel will slow down in the second half of the year, and the structural contradiction in the production of steel products will become more prominent. Steel companies will also face greater pressure from the capital chain.

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