Jiangxi cement (000,789, stock bar) (000,789)'s first-quarter earnings forecast announcement, detonated the cement sector as a whole rose on the 7th. The first quarter is the traditional off-season of the cement industry. It is generally expected that the high prices in the second half of last year will be slightly lowered in the first quarter. However, statistics from the digital cement network show that the cement price has rebounded in the first quarter. As of the end of March, the cement prices in the Beijing region have been Rose to 525 yuan per ton. Chen Bolin, deputy general manager of Digital Cement, predicted: "If cement companies continue to reach consensus on their own production restrictions, the cement prices in the second quarter and the whole year will increase steadily."
In the first quarter, the first quarter quarterly earnings announcements of three companies, namely Jiangxi Cement, Tongli Cement (000885) and Conch Cement (600585), were not the triggers for the rise of the cement sector again.
Jiangxi cement announced on the 7th, the company's first quarter net profit of about 8 million to 90 million yuan, an increase of about 2064% to 2332%. On the opening day, Jiangxi Cement's share price opened higher and higher, almost closing at the daily limit. Coincidentally, on the same day, Tongli Cement is expected to have a net profit of approximately RMB 32 million in the first quarter, which is approximately 150% higher than the same period of the previous year. Conch Cement, on the previous day, expects its net profit in the first quarter of 2011 to increase by more than 150% year-on-year.
Jiangxi Cement said that the growth in performance was mainly due to the continuous improvement in the supply and demand relationship of the cement industry, and the company’s sales price in the first quarter increased significantly compared to the same period of the previous year. This reason also explains the overall status of the cement industry in the first quarter.
In the first quarter, the cement industry entered the traditional off-season, coupled with the end of cut-off power production and production recovery. The market expects that the cement price will be significantly reduced. However, Chen Bolin introduced that in the first quarter of this year, cement manufacturers with high concentration in East China had to automatically limit production in order to maintain the price of cement. According to statistics, the average national cement price in the first quarter was 386 yuan/ton, although the figure was down by 4.45% from the beginning of the year, but it was affected by the hikes. The year-on-year increase was 12.5%, of which, East China, Central South, and North China rose by 47.8% and 19.4 respectively. % and 14.4%.
Since the blackouts occurred in the second half of last year, the cement price has reached the highest value in history, with Shanghai as the representative of the East China region, especially in Shanghai, where the cement price is even as high as 600 yuan/ton. At present, most cement listed companies have published annual reports. According to incomplete statistics, current average revenue growth is 34.18%, average net profit growth is 43.4%, and gross profit margin averages 24.6%, of which gross profit in the fourth quarter is 31.8%, compared with the previous year. In the fourth quarter, it increased by 8 percentage points, and the profit growth rate greatly exceeded income.
The second quarter or steady rise has entered April. In addition to cement demand in a few areas in the northeast and northwest China, the country has already entered the peak season. Coupled with the short-term power consumption can not be restored or not improved, the second quarter of cement prices is still a high probability event.
However, some analysts are concerned that with the increase in the inventory of cement manufacturers, the overall overcapacity situation of the cement industry has not changed, and the increase in production may cause the price of cement to decline.
China Investment Securities also pointed out that the total investment in new projects started to decline by 12.42% in the January-February period. Except Shanghai, the eastern region continued to grow this year because of the impact of the World Expo last year. Both Jiangsu and Zhejiang experienced declines. It is expected that the national cement demand growth rate will be less than 8% this year, while cement demand in East China does not rule out the possibility of negative growth.
Chen Berlin did not agree with this. He believes that the national cement demand growth rate was 13.9% last year. Even if this year's demand growth rate is 8%, it is actually a positive growth, and the increase in demand is higher than the increase in new cement production capacity. According to him, this year, the output of new dry clinker production increased by 150 million tons, while the new production capacity last year was 250 million tons. At the same time, he believes that although the market in east China tends to be saturated, it will still grow slowly, with a growth rate of about 3%-5%.
In addition, CICC believes that the reason for cement price to remain higher is structural, rather than cyclical: The government continues to limit the high-energy-consuming industries. The cumulative industry concentration that has accumulated over the past few years has increased, and companies have limited capacity expansion. The strategy shifts to the joint control of the market, which will drive cement prices to continue to rise from 2011 to 2012.
In the first quarter, the first quarter quarterly earnings announcements of three companies, namely Jiangxi Cement, Tongli Cement (000885) and Conch Cement (600585), were not the triggers for the rise of the cement sector again.
Jiangxi cement announced on the 7th, the company's first quarter net profit of about 8 million to 90 million yuan, an increase of about 2064% to 2332%. On the opening day, Jiangxi Cement's share price opened higher and higher, almost closing at the daily limit. Coincidentally, on the same day, Tongli Cement is expected to have a net profit of approximately RMB 32 million in the first quarter, which is approximately 150% higher than the same period of the previous year. Conch Cement, on the previous day, expects its net profit in the first quarter of 2011 to increase by more than 150% year-on-year.
Jiangxi Cement said that the growth in performance was mainly due to the continuous improvement in the supply and demand relationship of the cement industry, and the company’s sales price in the first quarter increased significantly compared to the same period of the previous year. This reason also explains the overall status of the cement industry in the first quarter.
In the first quarter, the cement industry entered the traditional off-season, coupled with the end of cut-off power production and production recovery. The market expects that the cement price will be significantly reduced. However, Chen Bolin introduced that in the first quarter of this year, cement manufacturers with high concentration in East China had to automatically limit production in order to maintain the price of cement. According to statistics, the average national cement price in the first quarter was 386 yuan/ton, although the figure was down by 4.45% from the beginning of the year, but it was affected by the hikes. The year-on-year increase was 12.5%, of which, East China, Central South, and North China rose by 47.8% and 19.4 respectively. % and 14.4%.
Since the blackouts occurred in the second half of last year, the cement price has reached the highest value in history, with Shanghai as the representative of the East China region, especially in Shanghai, where the cement price is even as high as 600 yuan/ton. At present, most cement listed companies have published annual reports. According to incomplete statistics, current average revenue growth is 34.18%, average net profit growth is 43.4%, and gross profit margin averages 24.6%, of which gross profit in the fourth quarter is 31.8%, compared with the previous year. In the fourth quarter, it increased by 8 percentage points, and the profit growth rate greatly exceeded income.
The second quarter or steady rise has entered April. In addition to cement demand in a few areas in the northeast and northwest China, the country has already entered the peak season. Coupled with the short-term power consumption can not be restored or not improved, the second quarter of cement prices is still a high probability event.
However, some analysts are concerned that with the increase in the inventory of cement manufacturers, the overall overcapacity situation of the cement industry has not changed, and the increase in production may cause the price of cement to decline.
China Investment Securities also pointed out that the total investment in new projects started to decline by 12.42% in the January-February period. Except Shanghai, the eastern region continued to grow this year because of the impact of the World Expo last year. Both Jiangsu and Zhejiang experienced declines. It is expected that the national cement demand growth rate will be less than 8% this year, while cement demand in East China does not rule out the possibility of negative growth.
Chen Berlin did not agree with this. He believes that the national cement demand growth rate was 13.9% last year. Even if this year's demand growth rate is 8%, it is actually a positive growth, and the increase in demand is higher than the increase in new cement production capacity. According to him, this year, the output of new dry clinker production increased by 150 million tons, while the new production capacity last year was 250 million tons. At the same time, he believes that although the market in east China tends to be saturated, it will still grow slowly, with a growth rate of about 3%-5%.
In addition, CICC believes that the reason for cement price to remain higher is structural, rather than cyclical: The government continues to limit the high-energy-consuming industries. The cumulative industry concentration that has accumulated over the past few years has increased, and companies have limited capacity expansion. The strategy shifts to the joint control of the market, which will drive cement prices to continue to rise from 2011 to 2012.
Safety Vest,Reflective Material Co., Ltd. , http://www.chsafetyvest.com