Rebar market or continue down

Last week, the main thread contract RB1110 opened 4721, the highest 4750, the lowest 4671, closing 4731, and the same price as the previous week's closing. A total of 2.928 million contracts were traded throughout the week, and the positions were reduced by 11768 to 739,000 lots. After a sharp decline in the previous week, the price entered a relatively calm consolidation pattern. The market outlook may continue to weaken and fluctuate.

Fundamental aspects: According to statistics, China's production of reinforced bars and wire rods was 89.309 million tons and 48.95 million tons, up by 10% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively; the output of bars, bars and wire rods in May was 19,362,000 tons respectively. And 10.22 million tons, up 11.4% and 11% respectively, the average daily output was 415,000 tons and 330,000 tons, an increase of 4.5% and 0.8% respectively. Domestic construction steel production is still at a high level. On June 20th, China’s commercial banks officially paid deposits. Affected by this, interbank money market interest rates soared. The overnight weighted interest rate in the interbank repurchasing market soared 293.74 basis points to 6.92331%. The 7-day and 14-day interest rates rose 80.02 points and 46.51 basis points to 7.5068% and 7.5051% respectively. Under the background of relatively large internal and external inflationary pressures, it is difficult for the monetary tightening efforts to materially relax in the short term, and the current situation of tight market funds will remain.

According to the latest data from the Central Bank, nearly 25% of the newly added 7.95 trillion ** inflows into the real estate sector. In order to cool down the real estate industry, the government has adopted administrative measures such as raising the down payment ratio, interest rates, and purchase restrictions, as well as setting stricter rules for developers to take land. The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently revealed that it has asked banks to adopt four measures to reduce real estate developers' exposure to real estate. It is reported that this is also the first time that the regulator has publicly stated that it wants to reduce real estate. The International Monetary Union (IMF) released an updated version of the "World Economic Outlook" report for the first half of 2011. It is estimated that the global economic growth this year will be 4.3%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the forecast for April this year.

From the technical graphics point of view, the rebar rb1110 contract on the K-line and Zhou K-line have chosen Powei down, the average system showed a short-term trend, while the week KDJ is also in a downward trend. Operationally, it is recommended that investors take a short position on the rallies and take a break on the 10-day moving average.

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