The two major mainstream technology markets for photovoltaics will now be “divided”

Abstract Under the winter of photovoltaics, the industry is generally concerned not only by which companies take the lead in getting rid of difficulties, but also who can counter the trend to occupy the market highlands. According to the latest report released by the authoritative photovoltaic research institute NPDsolarbuzz, the production of polycrystalline silicon wafers in the global market experienced 2012...
Under the cold winter of photovoltaics, the industry is generally concerned not only by which companies take the lead in getting out of trouble, but also whose technology can counter the trend to occupy the market highlands. According to the latest report released by the authoritative photovoltaic research institute NPD Solarbuzz, the production of polycrystalline silicon wafers in the global market has recovered to the 2011 level after experiencing a general decline in 2012. This highlights the current market position of polysilicon battery technology, one of the two major technologies of photovoltaics.

Despite this, from the performance of domestic related companies last year, the performance of monocrystalline silicon technology companies is better than polysilicon companies. The small size of the monocrystalline silicon market has made it one of the few companies that “has a good turn”.

The analysis pointed out that the current global PV market has not yet fully grown, and both single crystal and polycrystalline technologies have room for survival. In the short to medium term, polysilicon will still have a comparative advantage. From a long-term perspective, monocrystalline silicon will be able to share at least half of the market space.

Single crystal polycrystalline bright spots

According to NPD Solarbuzz's latest quarterly polysilicon and wafer supply chain quarterly report, after the wafer production fell by 15% in 2012, it is expected to increase by 19% in 2013, exceeding 30GW, and return to the 2011 level; the top 20 components in the first quarter of this year The market share of manufacturers has also increased from 58% in the first quarter of 2012 to 70%. Most of the top 20 vendors use polysilicon battery technology.

It is worth noting that despite the further increase in market share, the industry curse of “selling more and more losses” has caused these companies to expand their losses. According to the statistics of China Securities Journal, in the whole year of 2012, the top five leading manufacturers of PV stocks had a total loss of more than US$3 billion (approximately RMB 18 billion), while 25 domestic PV A-shares had a total loss. About 5.8 billion yuan.

Compared with polysilicon manufacturers, monocrystalline silicon manufacturers have not escaped losses last year, but the leading companies have shown a faster turnaround than polysilicon companies.

At present, there are only a few manufacturers of monocrystalline silicon wafers and related equipment that have been listed in China, including Longji, Zhonghuan, Comtec Solar (listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange) and Tianlong Optoelectronics. Although these companies ended in the loss in 2012, the demand for overseas monocrystalline silicon market climbed at the end of last year, and the performance has begun to recover before the polysilicon manufacturers. Taking Camden Solar as an example, the company's first quarter report showed that the company's net loss was RMB 160 million in the first quarter of the year and turned into a profit, achieving a net profit of RMB 10.61 million.

However, regardless of polycrystalline or single crystal manufacturers, the reality that has to be faced together is that the industry average silicon wafer capacity utilization rate is still expected to be below 60%. The current price of silicon wafers has stopped falling, but it has not rebounded significantly. Silicon wafer manufacturers have to overcome the multiple challenges to be profitable.

Single crystal super polycrystalline in 5 years

Single crystal and polycrystalline technology are the two most mature technologies for solar photovoltaic applications. Their advantages and disadvantages are obvious. The former has a high conversion rate but high cost, while the latter is the opposite.

The above Solarbuzz report pointed out that polysilicon wafers are expected to continue to dominate the wafer market in the short term, but high-efficiency solar modules based on monocrystalline silicon wafers are still favored by downstream projects with limited installation space, and are more expensive than standard because of their high efficiency. Polycrystalline components. In particular, the rapid growth in demand in the Japanese market has also increased the demand for high-efficiency single crystal modules. An analyst at Solarbuzz believes that the demand for the Japanese PV market will exceed 10% of the global market share in 2013 due to policy incentives. Due to the limited land resources of large-scale ground installation projects, the demand for roof installation projects in the Japanese market is strong, becoming a single The main driver of demand for crystal components.

However, the analyst also said that in order to increase the market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers, it is necessary to improve the production of single crystal silicon rods and further improve the efficiency of components.

Li Zhenguo, chairman of the domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer leading Longji shares, also believes that although photovoltaic polysilicon battery technology currently dominates the market, monocrystalline silicon cells have outstanding advantages in terms of conversion rate and cost in the future. Longji shares have become the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon wafers. In 2013, the production capacity will reach 2.2GW. The annual production and sales of silicon wafers are expected to exceed 1.4GW, an increase of more than 50% over 2012. The superior technical strength will continue to reduce the cost of support. The company expects that the cost of non-silicon process for monocrystalline wafer production will decrease by about 15% by the end of 2012. "Longji shares are expected to achieve a total operating income of 2.075 billion yuan this year, completely reverse the loss situation." Li Zhenguo said.

It is predicted that in the next five years, the market share of monocrystalline batteries is expected to increase from the current 40% to 45%, surpassing polycrystalline batteries for the first time. But this may also mean that monocrystalline silicon technology is difficult to shake the polysilicon market position in the short term.

The above Solarbuzz report also predicts that from 2015, monocrystalline battery production will grow faster than polycrystalline cells, resulting in more end-market applications and higher market share.

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