Coal prices will continue to be low

The mine was premature and premature at the internal meeting in the beginning of this month. Buchangsen revisited the extremely difficult period of the coal industry in 1998 and 1999. The whole mine could not eat or complain about the inability to pay wages, and demanded that all mines under Shandong Energy should enhance its sense of crisis. To fully prepare for possible future situations.

According to WIND data, from the end of 2011, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim continued to decline. On May 15 this year, the latest offer of Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal was 612 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.14%. As of the first quarter of this year, the net accumulated accounts receivable of the coal industry was 230.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%; the debt-to-asset ratio reached 60.67%, hitting a record high since 2010.

Jujube Mining Group Gaozhuang Coal Industry Co., Ltd. is the main mine of the Zao ore Group and achieved a profit of 1.2 billion yuan last year. Sun Guoguang, manager of Gaozhuang Coal Company, told the Economic Herald reporter that this year's profit target has increased by 70 million yuan, but coal prices have been declining in the same period. In the past two years, the iron and steel, power, and cement industries in the downstream of the coal industry have been sluggish. Many of their large clients have emerged the phenomenon of rejecting coal, picking up coal, and arrears of coal. Some small customers have started to collude with each other to lower prices.

Niu Kehong, deputy secretary-general of the Coal Industry Association of Shandong Province, told the reporter that the capital chain and cash flow are key indicators for coal companies. At present, the increase in accounts receivables and inventories of coal enterprises is due to the fact that some companies still have the inertial thinking of the “golden age” and hope that the market improves and recover. However, the market continues to be sluggish, which will inevitably increase the capital chain risk of the company.

The deeper and deeper the mine in Shandong, the higher the cost of mining and safety. According to statistics, Shandong has drilled 24 pairs of deep wells over a kilometer, accounting for 57% of the national total.

The Xinzheng Group Yuzhen coal mine was put into operation in 1993. It is the support mine for the New Ore Group to stabilize the production of 10 million tons. It has been mining high-intensity and has completed 30 years of mining in less than 20 years. The mine is not aging.

He Xilin, the head of the coal mine in Yucheng Town, said that at the end of 2011, they had 5,216 production systems, 3,602 non-coal, logistics, and property systems, and 1.6 million tons of coal that year. The market situation was good and the mines had profits. Good benefits mask the problems of decentralized stope layout, low personnel efficiency, and high human resource costs. Last year, the situation in the coal market changed dramatically and hidden problems within the company began to appear. How to make mining safer, more efficient, and more economical, how to make workers work more decent and make life more comfortable has become a major problem for mines.

The recovery of the L-shaped trend is difficult. Wu Changsen believes that the coal market will not get better in the long term and the coal price will run low or even decline in the next 3-5 years.

Niu Kehong told the Herald reporter that “the trend of the coal industry is 'L-shaped' and there should be no excessive expectations for recovery, and it is impossible to restore to the original high growth.”

During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, private and state-owned capital in real estate, electricity, automobile and other industries all treated coal as the Tang Dynasty, actively seeking to enter the coal industry, bringing about irrational development of the industry, and today’s correction is also the cause of the entire industry. The transition from rational development to rational development.

Data from the China Coal Industry Association shows that during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the coal industry completed a total investment of 1.25 trillion yuan, plus 470 billion yuan in 2011 and 478.82 billion yuan in 2012, totaling 2.2 trillion yuan. According to the calculation of 800 yuan/ton production capacity, a production capacity of 2.75 billion tons can be formed. In addition to the existing coal mine production capacity, the problem of the recent overcapacity of coal mines in the country is significant.

Niu Kehong is one of the experts who earlier saw the inflection point of the coal industry in China. In October 2011, he discovered signs of an inflection point in the industry. At the beginning of last year, he systematically published several articles explaining the turning point and crisis of the coal industry. In his view, today's trend in the coal industry is the inevitable result of the concentration of various market factors. The reasons for the sluggish foreign economy are also related to changes in domestic investment patterns and the end of large-scale investment-driven growth.

For the coal industry, the deep-seated reasons are that in addition to the above-mentioned excess production capacity, the downstream industries are all at the bottom of the industry. Demand has decreased and supply exceeds demand. International and domestic coal prices have been inverted, and imported coal has risen sharply, which has displaced the domestic market. The domestic energy structure is also constantly changing, limiting carbon emissions, and the proportion of new energy is increasing.

Last year, China imported 290 million tons of coal, and it imported 110 million tons in the first four months of this year. Niu Kehong also proposed that it is not a bad thing to properly import coal and increase resource reserves. However, it is necessary to increase the coal import threshold and prohibit the import of low-value, high-polluting and inferior coal.

The crisis of innovative business models has always been an organic crisis. Bo Changsen believes that "who first adapted to the current environment, created an upgraded version of the company, and swim in the current economic environment, who will lay the foundation for success in the future competition."

Niu Kehong said that with the changes in the structure of energy consumption, coal companies in Shandong need to adjust product, industry, talent, and market structure as soon as possible, shift from extensive production to lean development, and adapt to market changes as soon as possible. He suggested that the high-carbon industry should develop with low carbonization, develop clean fuels such as coal gas, develop new energy sources in a timely manner, and seize the opportunities of emerging industries. At the same time, when the market declines, it is also an opportunity for low-cost expansion. Enterprises that have both financial and technological support, as well as talents and management capabilities, can accelerate industrial integration through mergers and acquisitions.

In 2013, Shandong Energy Group targeted the “green coal strategy” for the transfer direction, made black coal into green energy, and made great contributions to the green mining, green processing, and green use of black coal.

Bo Changsen proposed to concentrate on the main coal industry to obtain coal resources with large reserves, good coal quality, good mining conditions, low mining costs, build large mines, build large bases, reduce resource costs, change coal production methods, and promote “light assets”. "Operation", vigorously promote the "light asset management."

Gaozhuang Coal has tasted the sweet spot of internal potential and value-added. According to Sun Guoguang, in the case of income reduction of 200 million yuan, the first four months of this year still achieved profits of 360 million yuan, more than 88 million yuan in excess of plans; tons of coal material fees, tons of coal electricity fees, tons of coal management costs decreased This ranged from 7% to 2%; the ergonomics of all employees increased by 13% compared with the same period of last year.