Cost support continues to strengthen the steel market into a concussive pattern

As the Central Economic Work Conference for the next year, the domestic economy, "steady progress," set the tone and the NDRC positive response to the impact of large-scale infrastructure projects, the domestic steel market ushered in a wave of rapid pull up the market, but because the market has entered the seasonal demand low season , The market volume was light, the traders' willingness of the winter reserve was not strong, and some of the specifications of the products showed a slight correction. As the current steel cost support continues to increase and the market's mentality is positive and stable, the domestic steel market will enter a concussive pattern. It is expected that the overall domestic steel market will rise slightly in the short term.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2012.12.24-12.28) domestic steel market prices will rise slightly, the long products market will increase slightly, while the plate market price will rise or fall. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 149.1. The average price of steel is around 3880 yuan, and the average volatility is around 30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 162.6, rising slightly around 0.7; Lange The steel sheet index is expected to fluctuate around 132.7 points, a slight increase of around 0.7 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.12.24-12.28) domestic long products market prices will be slightly pulled up, while the plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will rise steadily The market price of iron ore will increase by 20 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will rise by 50 yuan, and the billet market price will rise by 30 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market slightly increased this week. Week 51 of 2012 (12.17-12.21) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 148.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.01% and a decrease of 12.93% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long product price index was 161.9 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.98%, a decrease of 16.55% from the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price index was 132 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.06%, a decrease of 6.96% from the same period last year (see Figure 1 for details) .

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the market price of main steel products increased slightly in the 51st week of 2012 (12.17-12.21), compared with last week, the increase in prices. Slight increase, flat varieties have decreased, and decline varieties have increased slightly. Among them, 28 varieties rose, compared with the previous week, an increase of 4 species; 7 species were flat, 7 species decreased compared to last week; 9 species fell, an increase of 3 species from last week. The price of domestic iron and steel raw materials market rose steadily or slightly, the iron ore market price rose by 30-75 yuan, the coke market price rose steadily by 20 yuan, the scrap market price rose by 30 yuan, and the billet market price slightly increased by 80-90 yuan.

2. This week, the nation's steel stocks have dropped again. At present, the nation's steel stocks have risen from low to high. The stock of building materials has changed from high to low, and the rate of decline in sheet stocks has slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on December 21, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 11.7495 million tons, down 67,000 tons from last week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory was 1,069,300 tons, down 1.00% from last week; rebar social stocks were 45.4 million tons, down 0.14% from last week; Panluo social inventory was 304,000 tons, This was an increase of 5.39% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,060,400 tons, which was a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1,522,200 tons, 0.39% lower than last week; the plate's social inventory The volume was 1,307,700 tons, which was 2.74% lower than last week.

3. This week, the steel market oscillated sideways on the 51st week of 2012 (12.17-12.21). The rebar market oscillated sideways. This week's weekly closing price rose 7 points from last week, after a two-week rally. The pace of rising gradually stopped and the price fell into a high order. This week's main contract was 1.353 million lots, a decrease of 133,000 lots. A phenomenon that needs close attention in the near future is that once the price rises, the position will gradually increase. Once the price falls, the position will also fall, indicating that the short initiative will suppress the price action. Not strong.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

SERC: In November, the contribution rate of heavy industry electricity growth increased significantly in November 2012. The country’s industrial electricity consumption was 310.09 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and electricity consumption for the entire society. The contribution rate of growth reached 69.5%, which was an increase of 42.9 percentage points from September. Among them, heavy industry electricity consumption increased by 6.7%, the growth rate increased by 0.9% from last month, contributed 56.2% to the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society, and increased by 51.2% from September; the growth rate of light industry continued to be higher than that of heavy industry, It reached 8.2%, and the growth contribution rate decreased by 8.2% from September. In the main electricity industry, in November, the four major industries of chemicals, building materials, ferrous metal smelting, and non-ferrous metal smelting combined electricity consumption was 135.63 billion kWh, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.3 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, black and non-ferrous electricity use increased by 4.1% year-on-year, which was the first positive growth during the year. The growth rate increased by 10.9 percentage points from the previous month, showing a rapid rise; the contribution rate to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society was 43.0 percentage points higher than that in September.

Fiscal policy adjustment in 2013: Increased investment to promote urbanization The Central Economic Work Conference held recently has set a fiscal policy for 2013, and active fiscal policy will continue through the macro-control of the next year. Among them, in addition to continuing to increase investment in people's livelihood and implementing structural tax cuts, increasing financial support to promote urbanization will be a major highlight of next year's positive fiscal. In this regard, the local finance department stated that the basic idea of ​​fiscal work next year has been determined, and it is certain that the government should increase the financial investment in urbanization, further refine the relevant plans, and advance the new urbanization construction.

Central Bank: Continue to Implement a Steady Monetary Policy to Deepen Financial Reform Next Year On December 17, the People's Bank of China convened a meeting of presidents and offices to convey the spirit of studying the Central Economic Work Conference and study related work for the deployment of the People's Bank of China. The meeting requested that the various departments and departments of the People's Bank of China should thoroughly understand and fully implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and unify the thinking and understanding of the Central Committee on the scientific judgment of the current economic situation. We must continue to grasp the overall tone of work for stability and progress, and in accordance with the actual work of the PBC, earnestly implement the central government’s task requirements and decision-making arrangements for economic work next year, strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, and attach great importance to and in-depth Analyze the potential risks in the financial sector, and firmly hold the bottom line where systemic and regional financial risks do not occur. At the same time, continue to deepen financial reforms, promote economic restructuring and changes in economic development patterns, and achieve sustained and healthy development of the national economy.

Industry News:

In early December, crude steel production fell to 1.945 million tons. According to the latest statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average steel production per day was 165.69 tons for key steelmakers in early December, and was up by 0.98% month-on-month. The national estimate was 1.945 million tons, down by 0.76 points compared to the previous period. %. Prior to this, data from the China Iron and Steel Association showed that in the late November, the key steel enterprises produced 1.441 million tons of crude steel per day, which was estimated to be 1.959 million tons in the country.

Thailand's anti-dumping investigation against China's high carbon steel rods issued by the Ministry of Commerce issued a public notice that, on the request of Thailand's NTS Steel Group, Thailand decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation against high carbon steel rods originating in China, involving 72139190021, 72139190022, 72139190030. , 72139190031, 72139190090, 72279000014, 72279000090 and other seven Thai Customs tariff items under the product.

The previous session of the thread ** rose on the 21st main contract rose 0.11%

In the previous period, the main rebar 1305 contract was opened at 3,779 yuan/ton in the morning, and then the price showed fluctuations throughout the day. The lowest was 3,772 yuan per ton for the whole day, and the highest was 3,832 yuan per ton, and it was closed at 3,793 yuan per ton. On the trading day (20th), the settlement price rose by 4 yuan/ton, 2,602,290 contracts, 1,353,428 positions, a decrease of 68,380 contracts.

Downstream demand:

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Transport, in the first 11 months of this year, domestic investment in fixed assets completed 1,3051.11 billion yuan, an increase of 0.83% over the same period of last year. The first year of positive growth occurred during the year. Among them, in November, domestic investment in fixed assets completed 170.82 billion yuan, up 6% from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, investment growth in November continued to exceed double digits, reaching 10.4%, setting a new investment high in a single month of the year. In terms of categories, both highways and inland investments have seen positive growth. In the first 11 months of this year, the investment in highway construction reached 1,147.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, while the highway investment in the previous October also fell slightly by 0.95% year-on-year. The investment in inland construction completed 42.27 billion yuan, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points; the construction cost for coastal construction was 93.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; the investment in other construction projects was 21.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, and the decline was slightly larger.

From January to November, the three major shipbuilding indicators decreased year-on-year According to the statistics from the China Shipbuilding Association, from January to November, 50.55 million dwt were completed in China, a decrease of 18.2% year-on-year. The number of new ship orders was 17.04 million dwt, down 49.4% year-on-year. At the end of November, the number of handheld ship orders was 113.5 million dwt, which was a year-on-year drop of 30.3%, a decrease of 24.4% from the end of 2011.

In January-November, the country’s completed and exported ships were 42.76 million dwt, down 17.5% year-on-year; orders for export ships were 13.34 million dwt, down 46.9% year-on-year; at the end of November, orders for export vessels were 93.85 million dwt, down 31.3% year-on-year. Export ships accounted for 84.6%, 78.3% and 82.8% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders received, and hand-held orders, respectively.

16 million-kilowatt wind power projects in 16 provinces and regions approved. The National Energy Bureau issued the Notice on Supplementing the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Wind Power Approval Scheme for Some Provinces and Autonomous Regions and the Second Batch of Xinjiang and Yunnan “Twelfth Five-Year” Wind Power Projects on the 18th. Approved plans and several other documents. According to rough statistics, the approved wind power projects in 16 provinces and regions have installed more than 8.52 million kilowatts; and since the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the total installed capacity of wind power projects approved by the Energy Bureau has exceeded 53 million kilowatts. Among the newly approved 8.52 million kilowatts projects, 2.47 million kilowatts belong to the newly approved projects of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the Xinjiang Construction Corps, and the remaining 6.05 million kilowatts belong to unplanned supplementary projects. The projects approved this time are mainly distributed in central and eastern provinces such as Shanxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei and Hunan. The addition of a new batch of wind power projects by the National Energy Administration will help boost the orders of wind power equipment manufacturers next year. At the same time, these new batch of projects will have excellent grid connection conditions, which will also help ensure the timely development of project development.

Development and Reform Commission: Power Grid Construction Reinvested 2.2 Billion On December 17, the National Development and Reform Commission released the power grid audit project again, involving Shaanxi and Fujian provinces, involving a total of 2.194 billion yuan. This is the third time this month that the National Development and Reform Commission approved the project of power transmission and transformation. On the 3rd of this month, the National Development and Reform Commission announced six power transmission and transformation projects, mainly involving Anhui Province; on the 10th of this month, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it had approved eight transmissions. Substation projects involve four provinces of Shandong, Fujian, Hunan, and Hebei.

Development and Reform Commission: 22 Key Projects for Western Development in 2012 According to the National Development and Reform Commission, 22 new key projects for western development will be started this year, with a total investment of 577.8 billion yuan. The 22 key new construction projects include Chongqing to Wanzhou Railway, Dunhuang to Golmud Railway, Zhangjiakou to Hohhot Railway, Ningxi Railway from Xi’an to Hefei Section Adding Second Line, Hami to Zhengzhou ±800 kV UHV DC Project, Xiluodu Left Bank to Zhejiang West ±800 Thousand volt HVDC project, West-East Gas Pipeline III, Zhongwei-Guiyang Gas Pipeline, Gansu Jiuquan Ten Thousand Kilowatts Wind Power Base Phase 2 The first batch of 3 million kilowatts of wind power project, the middle reaches of the Jinsha River Guanyinyan, Ludira, Longkou Hydropower Station, Guangxi Fangchenggang Iron and Steel Base, etc. The National Development and Reform Commission also stated that a total of 187 key projects were newly started in Western Development from 2000 to 2012, with a total investment of 3.68 trillion yuan.

The National Development and Reform Commission has approved that the total investment for the four wind power projects in China exceeds 57 billion U.S. dollars. The National Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved four domestic wind power projects with a cumulative scale of 6.808 million kilowatts and a total investment of over 57 billion yuan. According to the data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the four wind power projects are specifically the first batch of the second phase of the 10 million kilowatt-class wind power base in Jiuquan. The total investment of the project is 219,853.57 million yuan, with a total scale of 3 million kilowatts, a total of 8 wind farms, and a wind power project of 1 million to 1 kilowatts of million-kilowatt wind power bases in Damaoqi, Baotou City. The total investment of the project is 13,587,200,000 yuan, the total scale is 1,400,250 kilowatts, a total of 7 wind farms; Datang Chifeng Hanshan wind power project. The total investment of the project is 323.176 million yuan, with a total size of 40.05 million kilowatts; and 2 million kilowatts of wind power projects in the southeast wind district of Hami, Xinjiang. The total investment of the project is 161.82555 million yuan, with a total scale of 2.005 million kilowatts and a total of 10 wind farms. In addition, the first-phase wind power project in Pakistan's Tata area, which was invested by the China Three Gorges Project, was also approved.