The first price reduction of refined oil products in the near future

The international oil price fell below US$100/barrel, making the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel “advanced”. Yesterday, a number of social monitoring agencies have predicted that as soon as the early morning on May 9th and the early morning on the 11th, the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will be lowered, and the downward adjustment will be between 200-300 yuan/ton. Once it has come true, this will be the first time that the retail price of gasoline and diesel will be lowered during the year.

The agency predicts that the oil price may decrease around the 9th. According to China's refined oil pricing mechanism, when the international oil price changes more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic oil price may be adjusted accordingly. So far, 22 working days have passed since the date of the previous price adjustment on March 20, and the condition that only 4% of the price adjustment red line remains.

Monitoring data released by several social monitoring agencies yesterday showed that the current rate of change in international oil prices has approached -4%. Zhongyu Information Analyst Wang Jintao predicted that if the international oil price does not soar next, it is expected that Beijing morning on May 9th, the domestic price adjustment window for refined oil will be opened, when the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced. Even if the international oil price rises by another US$4 per barrel on the current basis, it will only take four more working days (that is, May 11) to meet the price reduction conditions, “while the international oil price is difficult to achieve US$4 in two or three days. The increase in the barrel price of refined oil this week has been a key factor."

“If you are quick, you can adjust prices early in the morning on the 9th. If you are slow, you have to go to the early morning of the 10th.” Chen Qing, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, also believes that if crude oil prices in the three countries on May 8 could fall to US$112/barrel, then on the 9th, Domestic oil prices may be lowered in the early morning; if international oil prices fall below 112 US dollars/barrel, it may be necessary to wait until the early morning of the 10th to adjust prices. “I think the price reduction trend has basically taken shape, only to be determined by the management department to determine the final price adjustment time.”

Market movements Sinopec lowered the value of allocations to concern that, just yesterday, Sinopec Group lowered the price of gasoline and diesel by 50-300 yuan/ton. In this regard, Chen Qing believes that: "Sinopec's price adjustment is very special, is the initiative in the NDRC before the price adjustment, showing that the gasoline market is really sluggish, refined oil prices need to be lowered."

The so-called transfer price refers to the settlement price between refineries and sales companies in the Sinopec system, which belongs to the distribution of profits between different parts of Sinopec. According to Liao Kailu, if the Sinopec Group does not adjust its internal transfer price, the refinery wholesales its own refined oil products to the company's own sales company, which is a higher price than the wholesale market. This shows that the current demand in the wholesale market is weak. This reporter learned that compared to March 20, the current domestic wholesale price of gasoline and diesel has dropped by 230 yuan / ton and 250 yuan / ton, returning to the market level before March 20th price increase.

The drop is about 200-300 yuan / ton for the extent of the price adjustment may reach, the industry is generally expected to be between 200-300 yuan / ton.

According to Lian Kaixi, an analyst with An Xun Sixiwang Energy, the refinery generally has a one-month cycle from purchasing crude oil to refining. Now the refinery uses the international crude oil purchased in April. According to the international crude oil price in April, the refinery also At a loss. In addition, the increase in oil prices on March 20 was not in place, so it is expected that the price cut will not fall in place and should be within 300 yuan/ton. Li Hong, a product oil analyst at Business Club, also stated that because the current international oil price level is still at a high level, even if the country cuts refined oil prices, the margin will be relatively limited and is expected to be around 300 yuan/ton.

Taking the reduction rate of 300 yuan/ton as an example, if one liter of gasoline is converted, 0# diesel will be reduced by 0.26 yuan/liter, 90# gasoline will be reduced by 0.22 yuan/liter, and 93# gasoline will be reduced by 0.23 yuan or 0.24 yuan/liter. . At present, the price of 93# gasoline used by Beijing residents is 8.33 yuan/liter. Even if the price adjustment comes true, Beijing's oil price will still be above 8 yuan/liter above the consumer price point.

Yesterday, after hearing the news that domestic oil prices were expected to be lowered this week, many citizens expressed that they would not make much of a comeback in the coming days. Some people even joked that only adding 10 yuan of oil each day would bring them down. Many citizens said that high oil prices, together with high parking fees, have partly changed the way they travel. Even if oil prices fall, they will not drive around every day as they did several years ago.

The domestic wholesale price of petrol stations has been increasing, and the wholesale price of petrol and diesel has continued to drop. The spread between wholesale and retail has expanded, and gas stations have thus had more room to cut prices. Yesterday, the reporter learned from the domestic petrol station real-time price content provider Yukewang.com that in several major cities in China, the number of petrol stations for price cuts is increasing, and the decline is also expanding (see the attached table for details).

Xu Lidan, assistant general manager of OilerNet, told the reporter that taking Beijing as an example, the number of petrol stations whose price is lower than the national maximum limit price in 1,240 oil stations in the capital has increased from 249 on May 3 to 265 on yesterday. The proportion of the total amount was also increased from 20% to 21%, and the price reduction ranged from 0.65 yuan to 0.03 yuan/liter. These stations are mainly privately owned, and there are also foreign-funded petrol stations such as Shell and Total, as well as self-help petrol stations of PetroChina and Sinopec.

Will the new mechanism for pricing and pricing extension issue be uncertain? The National Development and Reform Commission will not delay the timing of this domestic oil price cut, and introduce a refined oil pricing mechanism?

Chen Qing and Wang Jintao believe that it is expected that the price cut will be accompanied by changes in the pricing mechanism, because this time is a good time. Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan believes that it remains to be seen whether the new round of pricing mechanism will be introduced. “At present, the domestic economic operation is not yet stable. At this time, the greater the degree of liberalization, the greater the impact on the downstream will lead to inflation expectations. It is obviously increasing. Therefore, I think the probability of introducing the new mechanism is not large.” Liao Kaixi also believes that it is not suitable to introduce new pricing mechanism for refined oil products.