Investment Highlights:
The base metal rose as expected. This week the market slowly recovered from the previous week's crash, gradually rising in the shock, consistent with our judgment. We believe that the logic of metal prices will remain unchanged, the United States and Japan will restart stimulus policies; domestic restrictions on industrial production due to energy conservation and emission reductions; poor economic data and the continuity of real estate policies may not lead the central government to tighten liquidity. Under the influence of the metal market, both the fundamentals and the capital are positive. We believe that the rising trend will remain unchanged.
The risk factors that are worth noticing in the near future: If domestic house prices rise, it may lead to a new round of government regulation.
The LME Metal Index rose 3.34% this week. Among them, LME aluminum prices rose 3.81% to $2180, copper prices rose 3.13% to $7720, zinc prices rose 1.94% to $2151, lead prices rose 0.8% to $2202.5, nickel prices rose 3.11% to $23200, tin prices rose 7.89% to $23600.
Shanghai Stock Exchange increased aluminum and zinc inventories, global aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin stocks fluctuated at high levels, and copper stocks trended downwards.
The output of electrolytic aluminum fell for three consecutive months. In August, the output was 1.279 million tons, which fell by 10% since the historic high in May. This indicates that despite the recent increase in aluminum prices, due to the significant increase in electricity costs in recent months, many companies still At a loss, production cuts may continue. In addition, lead production reached a record high in August, reaching 404,000 tons. The output of other metal products was maintained at high levels in August.
International gold prices hit new highs. The international spot gold price hit another record high last week and rose 2.25% to $1274.3. The US dollar index fell 1.57% over the same period, and the SPDR gold ETF increased 0.56%. For other precious metals, international spot silver prices rose 0.01% to $19.8875 this week, international platinum fell 0.74% to $1543.75, and international palladium fell 1.84% to $520. We continue to maintain optimistic outlook on gold prices, risk aversion and reinflation It is expected that the price of gold will continue to rise. Possible risks: U.S. economic data over-estimation may trigger technical adjustments to gold prices but do not change the upward trend in the medium term.
Small metal rose and fell. This week, magnesium in the Yangtze River increased by 6.45%, Yangtze River Manganese rose by 6.3%, LME cobalt rose by 5%, and Yangtze River Cobalt gained 1.42%. On the other hand, International Titanium fell by 2%.