Industry reshuffle, "double-reverse" investigation, stock price decline, financing difficulties, facing delisting... Recently, the "terrible" of the photovoltaic industry has seen the major media newspaper industry shuffling, "double-reverse" investigation, stock price decline, Financing difficulties, facing delisting... Everyone is asking the same question: When will the spring of the photovoltaic industry come? Who can survive the winter and see the spring? On May 8, Liu Yong, chief technology officer of JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd., said in an interview that 2012 will be the most difficult year for the photovoltaic industry. It may continue to be sluggish in 2013, but since 2013 Can gradually start again. "Now the grid connection problem has not been solved, the application side has not been opened, and the industry itself has problems of disorderly competition and overcapacity. However, the prospect of the solar energy industry is unquestionable. The question is who can survive and will meet the hard times. The next big opportunity for development." Liu Yong said. In Liu Yong's view, technology development capabilities will become the foundation of the future PV companies. From technology introduction to cooperative development On May 3, JA Solar and the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences signed a strategic cooperation agreement to join forces to establish a photovoltaic innovation research center. In fact, Shanghai Institute of Technology is focusing on low-cost thin-film solar cells, while Jingao is a manufacturer of crystalline silicon solar cells. Although each has its own focus, the R&D staff of both sides have seen the possibility of “complementaryâ€. Liu Yong said that the cooperation will be based on deep technical exchanges, and strive to improve the existing technology level through the details of cooperation in the process of technology development. This cooperation is another measure of JA Solar's cooperation in research and development. Jingao has always focused on battery technology that can be mass-produced. At present, the average conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cell mass production reaches 18.8%; polysilicon reaches 17.4%; quasi-single crystal reaches 18.5%, which is the first-class level in the industry. In addition to self-development, cooperation with overseas countries has also contributed. At present, Jingao has many well-known partners at home and abroad, such as the US Department of Energy's National Laboratory for Renewable Energy, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Netherlands National Energy Research Center, Shanghai Solar Cell Research and Development Center, and Fudan University. Wait. In addition, companies such as Innovalight and InteVac and overseas equipment suppliers will also use JA as the preferred partner. "There are many technologies in this industry that are introduced and digested, and Jingao has now reached the second stage of joint development." Liu Yong said. Liu Yong said that as a production-oriented enterprise, R&D is very important to Jingao. In the future industrial differentiation and differentiated development, technological progress will be the most important factor. Although he did not disclose the specific R&D expenses of Jingao every year, Liu Yong affirmed: “Not a decimal.†Targeting the next generation of technology According to statistics, Jingao’s annual shipments in 2011 reached 1.69 GW, an increase of 15.8% over 2010. . According to the annual report released by SolarBuzz in March this year, JA Solar ranked first in China and second in the world in the global battery manufacturer rankings in 2011. Jingao is famous for its crystalline silicon battery. This is also the mainstream product of solar cells now. Many people believe that after the first generation of crystalline silicon cells, second-generation thin-film batteries and third-generation concentrating batteries will eventually replace crystalline silicon cells. In this regard, Liu Yong does not agree: "These three technologies actually exist at the same time, and the latter two have their own fatal shortcomings, which may be just niche technologies. From the perspective of development, crystalline silicon batteries are the biggest future. At present, some technologies that can improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of crystalline silicon cells are expected by domestic and foreign industries, such as back-point contact (IBC) solar cells, also known as next-generation crystalline silicon cell technology. The common solar cell has a lower efficiency due to the shielding of the front electrode, and the metal electrode of the IBC battery is located on the back of the battery, and the front side can be completely exposed to light, so the battery efficiency can be further improved. At present, IBC batteries are being developed all over the world. Although some companies report success in the laboratory, they have not entered mass production. Sun Power, the only large-scale manufacturer, is also facing higher costs and limited market conditions. The development of a low-cost next-generation IBC technology has become the industry consensus. Almost all of the top photovoltaic cell companies in China have also adopted IBC solar cell technology as their main research direction. "We hope to cooperate with domestic and foreign enterprises to achieve industrial production as soon as possible." Liu Yong said. Liu Yong said that using traditional technology, the efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is difficult to break through 20%. If you want to exceed 20%, you must rely on next-generation crystalline silicon battery technology. The technology development capability will become a bottleneck. "Photovoltaic parity is not far from the Internet." Liu Yong told reporters. As countries around the world cut their PV subsidies drastically, PV “fair price online†has become a common expectation of the industry. Liu Yong believes that in Europe, Africa and other countries with higher electricity prices, such as Italy, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has been lower than traditional power generation, and has achieved parity online. In China, according to the National Development and Reform Commission's clear 1 yuan / degree on-grid electricity price, it has been close to the peak electricity prices in some economically developed regions in the east. “Photovoltaic costs are decreasing at a rate of 30% to 40% every year, but the price of electricity will continue to rise in the future, and the intersection is expected to come soon.†Liu Yong pointed out that in some regions of China, the price of solar energy will be available online in 2013~2014. . Once a cheaper Internet access is achieved, solar energy will formally transition from relying on subsidies to independent forms of energy. This is both an opportunity and a challenge for all solar companies. In fact, from the big march into the international market to the European and American countries have set thresholds for Chinese companies, the market itself has fully proved the advantages of China's photovoltaic enterprises and product competitiveness. However, Liu Yong clearly pointed out that foreign investment in technology research and development in the photovoltaic industry is very large, and the future technological development potential may be higher than that in China. Taking production equipment as an example, there are some devices in the country that can replace foreign equipment, but complex, high-precision, high-reliability production equipment must also rely on imports. Liu Yong hopes that domestic enterprises will invest more in the independent development of new technologies, in order to make sufficient technical reserves to cope with international competition, especially to improve the competitiveness of the entire supply chain. With the industry upgrade and the increasing technical requirements, after the new round of reshuffle, many companies that do not have sustainable development capabilities may not see the arrival of photovoltaic spring. "Enterprises must develop the ability to develop new technologies to keep up with the trend of technological advancement." Liu Yong said.
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