It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will be between 8.5% and 10.5% in 2012. The recommended scheme is 9.5%. The annual electricity consumption will be 514 million kilowatt-hours, which may present a “low front and high†distribution; at the end of the year, full-caliber power generation capacity will be installed. Capacity reached 1.14 billion kilowatts. Based on comprehensive balance analysis, it is expected that the nation's electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal, and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent, with a maximum power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts.
(I) Further slowdown in macroeconomic and power demand growth In 2012, the environment facing China's economic and social development was relatively complex and there were many uncertainties. However, the country's overall work style of “striving for stability†and more effective macroeconomic regulation and control It can ensure that China's economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid development, and the expected effects of the country’s macro-control will be further manifested. Comprehensive analysis of the forecast results of domestic and foreign institutions, the national GDP growth rate in 2012 between 8.0% and 9.0%, the recommended program is about 8.5%.
Considering the macroeconomic operating situation and investment, consumption, and export conditions in 2012, as well as the steady growth in the first three quarters of 2011, and the fourth quarter, the power consumption demand in 2012 will continue to increase steadily. The growth rate will be lower than that in 2011. It is estimated that the national total electricity consumption will be 5.09-5.19 trillion kWh, an increase of 8.5%-10.5% year-on-year. The recommended plan is 5.14 trillion kWh, an increase of 9.5% over the same period of last year. "Below low and high" distribution.
From the perspective of different industries, the first industry uses electricity at a low rate and grows steadily; the second industry uses electricity, which is influenced by factors such as energy-saving and emission reduction policies, real estate regulation and control, slowdown of railway construction, and suppression of high energy consumption caused by the increase in electricity prices. The growth rate will be slightly lower than the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society; the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' electricity consumption will grow faster. From a regional point of view, the growth of electricity consumption in the eastern and northeastern regions will be lower than the national average; the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region will continue to rank first in all regions, but it will be affected by the decline in energy-saving emission reduction and exports of high energy-consuming products. It was lower than 2011; the growth rate in the central region was slightly higher than the national average.
(II) The power supply capacity will further increase, and the impact of slowdown in thermal power will gradually appear. It is understood that in order to speed up the adjustment of the power industry, the relevant national authorities plan to start 20 million kilowatts of hydropower in 2012 and organize the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-year Planâ€. The second batch of wind power projects with a scale of 15-18 million kilowatts will be built and the first batch of 3 million kilowatts of solar power development plans will be completed. Nuclear power projects are also expected to open for gate approval. According to calculations, the completion of investment in the country's power engineering construction is expected to exceed 730 billion yuan, of which about 350 billion yuan in power supply and 380 billion yuan in the power grid. Although the total investment scale is relatively large, the completed investment in thermal power will decrease compared with the previous year.
It is estimated that in 2012, the country’s newly installed infrastructure will have an installed capacity of 85 million kilowatts, including 20 million kilowatts of hydropower, 50 million kilowatts of thermal power, and 1 million kilowatts of nuclear power (another unit of the Fujian Ningde Nuclear Power Plant will have production conditions), with 14 million in wind power connected to the grid. Kilowatts, grid-connected solar power generation is about 1 million kilowatts. At the end of the year, the country’s installed power generation capacity reached approximately 1.14 billion kilowatts, including 250 million kilowatts of hydropower, 815 million kilowatts of thermal power, 13.57 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 59 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power, and 3 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar power.
Affected by the delay of project approval, coupled with poor profitability of thermal power and severely impaired investment capability of enterprises, resulting in insufficient investment in thermal power and slower construction speed, it is expected that the scale of new thermal power projects will continue to be smaller than the scale of operation in 2012, and the amount of thermal power investment and thermal power will increase. The scale will also decline from the previous year. It is estimated that the thermal power installed capacity at the end of the year will increase by about 6.5% from the previous year, still lower than the growth of electricity and electricity consumption, and the power supply and demand balance protection capability will be weakened. The future impact will be further manifested.
(III) There are many influencing factors of power supply, and the risk is relatively high. 1. The bottleneck of transportation is more severe. In some regions, the supply of coal will remain tight. The high price of thermal coal will be judged based on factors such as the power generation development trend of each type of unit. The national coal consumption will exceed 2.1 billion tons, an increase of 150 million tons from 2011, and coal demand will remain strong. According to the current calculation of the proportion of coal consumption in coal consumption at around 50%, it needs to increase the supply of raw coal by about 300 million tons, and there is a significant gap between the relevant national authorities and the estimated new coal production of only 200 million tons. This year's coal supply and coal prices have caused greater pressure. At the same time, the new railway capacity in 2012 is relatively low, and the bottleneck of electric coal transportation will remain one of the prominent contradictions that restrict the effective supply of electric coal. Some provinces are significantly constrained by the transport capacity, and are even more prominent in the dry season or in the year of dry season. Therefore, it is expected that the total amount of coal and transportation capacity will remain tight in 2012, and regional and seasonal tight issues will remain prominent. In the event of a relatively low demand for hydropower or a large increase in demand, the contradiction between supply and demand will remain prominent in some areas and at certain times. It will have a significant impact on the balance between electricity supply and demand.
Since the end of 2011, the state has issued a series of policies and measures that will, to a certain extent, reduce the operating pressure of thermal power companies and will be very beneficial to ensuring the power supply. However, taking into account factors such as the decline in the proportion of key contract coal, bundling sales, and coal price adjustments, the market price of coal in 2012 is still not optimistic, and the country's coal-to-plant (field) prices will continue to face greater upward pressure.
2. The extreme weather and the overall dryness of incoming water have a greater impact on supply and demand. Along with the increase in urbanization level and the level of electrification of residents, air-conditioning load accounts for the largest increase in the proportion of electricity load. Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other economically developed regions have already More than 30%, the level of air-conditioning load in other regions is gradually increasing, during the summer air temperature on the impact of electricity load is more and more significant. Judging from the frequent occurrence of extreme weather in recent years, extreme climates in our country are frequent and tend to appear continuously. Considering that the load that has not been released in 2011 without continuous high-temperature weather may be released in the second year, it is still necessary to pay attention to the possibility of extreme high-temperature weather during the summer peak season and the impact on the power guarantee capacity and the balance of power supply and demand in 2012. .
By the end of 2011, the adjustable water and storage values ​​of key hydropower plants nationwide have dropped by 14.2% and 27.2% year-on-year, respectively. The hydropower situation is not satisfactory. The significant decline in energy storage value will adversely affect hydropower production and electricity supply in 2012. It is initially expected that the overall situation of incoming water in 2012 will be slightly better than in 2011, but it is still generally dry. In particular, the arrival of water in summer is still severe.
(D) In ​​2012, the overall power supply and demand in the country was tight, and regional, seasonal, and seasonal power shortages were still outstanding. Under the condition of guaranteeing normal coal supply and incoming water, the overall electricity supply and demand in the country was tight in 2012, with surplus among regions. Coexisting with power shortages, especially taking into account the reduction in new installed capacity of thermal power plants, unbalanced distribution of newly installed power plants, inconsistent power supply and power grid construction, and other factors such as temperature, incoming water, coal supply, and coal quality decline Affected by random factors, it is expected that the nation's electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent, with a maximum power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts.
From a seasonal perspective, in the first quarter, due to factors such as the Spring Festival and slowing demand, the country’s electricity supply and demand situation eased, and the gap was small; Before the summer peak season, the impact of hydropower and other factors was significant, and the contradiction between power supply and demand in Central China and South China was prominent. The gap is large, and the nation’s largest power gap is close to 30 million kilowatts. During the summer peak season, with the release of high-temperature weather and air-conditioning load, the contradiction between supply and demand in the east, north, and south areas is outstanding. Under normal circumstances, the country’s largest electricity gap is about 30 million kilowatts. In the event of sustained high temperatures, drought, etc., the power gap is likely to further expand to 40 million kilowatts. It is estimated that the annual utilization time of power generation equipment will be around 4,750 hours, slightly higher than in 2011; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment will be 5,300-5,400 hours, which is less than 100 hours less than in 2011. In terms of subregions:
The power supply and demand of North China Grid is generally tight. Temperature and thermal coal have a great influence on the balance of power supply and demand. The maximum gap in the summer peak period is about 7 million kilowatts. The supply and demand of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Hebei South-Net, and Shandong Power are basically balanced, and there is a small gap during the peak season in summer; Shanxi's power supply capacity is basically sufficient, but the supply and demand situation still depends on the supply of electricity coal; the supply and demand balance of Inner Mongolia’s western power grid is more than adequate.
The power supply and demand of East China Power Grid is tight. It is particularly prominent during peak summer, with the largest power shortage in the entire network exceeding 12 million kilowatts. The power supply and demand in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are tight, among which there is insufficient supply capacity in Zhejiang, and there is a large power shortage in the summer peak season; the supply and demand of electricity in Shanghai and Anhui are basically balanced, and there is a certain gap in the summer peak season; there is a small surplus in the supply and demand balance in Fujian.
The power supply and demand of Huazhong Power Grid is tight. The supply and demand situation is significantly affected by the supply of water and coal. During the dry season, the power gap is about 10 million kilowatts. The power shortage in the summer has been reduced. The gap depends on the situation of incoming water in the flood season. Henan has a tight supply of electricity during the summer peak season, and the size of the gap depends on the supply of coal; Hubei has a basic balance in the summer and there is a certain gap in the dry season; Hunan and Jiangxi have tight supply and demand during the summer peak season, and supply and demand are tight during the dry season; electricity supply for most of the Sichuan period There are surpluses, and there is a certain gap during the dry season; Chongqing's power supply capacity is insufficient, and power supply and demand are tight during the year.
Northeast Power Grid has a surplus of electricity supply. There is a certain surplus in the supply and demand balance of Liaoning's electric power; there are more electric power surpluses in Jilin and Heilongjiang; there is more than enough power supply and demand balance in Mengdong Power Grid. The utilization hours of the entire network of thermal power equipment are less than 4000 hours, and it is difficult for wind power to be absorbed during heating.
The power supply and demand balance of the Northwest Power Grid has a slight surplus. Shaanxi's power supply and demand are basically balanced, but the supply and demand situation is greatly affected by the coal supply; Gansu has a certain surplus of electricity; Ningxia's delivery mission is heavy and the supply and demand are basically balanced; Qinghai's electricity supply and demand are generally tight, and the power demand and supply in the dry season are tight; There is a slight surplus; Tibet's electricity supply and demand balance after the Qinghai-Tibet network.
Southern Power Grid has a tight supply and demand of electricity. Insufficient supply of water and tight coal supply are the key factors affecting the balance between electricity supply and demand. The largest gap in the entire network before the flood season exceeded 10 million kilowatts, and the gap decreased slightly during summer. Among them, Guangdong's power supply and demand are tight, and the second quarter is even more prominent; Guangxi has a tight water supply during the dry season; Guizhou is sending less electricity, electricity supply and demand are still tight, and the supply and demand situation is severely constrained by the water supply and power supply; Yunnan's electricity supply and demand are tight, and the water supply period is tight. The basic balance of electricity supply and demand; Hainan power supply and demand overall balance.
(I) Further slowdown in macroeconomic and power demand growth In 2012, the environment facing China's economic and social development was relatively complex and there were many uncertainties. However, the country's overall work style of “striving for stability†and more effective macroeconomic regulation and control It can ensure that China's economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid development, and the expected effects of the country’s macro-control will be further manifested. Comprehensive analysis of the forecast results of domestic and foreign institutions, the national GDP growth rate in 2012 between 8.0% and 9.0%, the recommended program is about 8.5%.
Considering the macroeconomic operating situation and investment, consumption, and export conditions in 2012, as well as the steady growth in the first three quarters of 2011, and the fourth quarter, the power consumption demand in 2012 will continue to increase steadily. The growth rate will be lower than that in 2011. It is estimated that the national total electricity consumption will be 5.09-5.19 trillion kWh, an increase of 8.5%-10.5% year-on-year. The recommended plan is 5.14 trillion kWh, an increase of 9.5% over the same period of last year. "Below low and high" distribution.
From the perspective of different industries, the first industry uses electricity at a low rate and grows steadily; the second industry uses electricity, which is influenced by factors such as energy-saving and emission reduction policies, real estate regulation and control, slowdown of railway construction, and suppression of high energy consumption caused by the increase in electricity prices. The growth rate will be slightly lower than the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society; the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' electricity consumption will grow faster. From a regional point of view, the growth of electricity consumption in the eastern and northeastern regions will be lower than the national average; the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region will continue to rank first in all regions, but it will be affected by the decline in energy-saving emission reduction and exports of high energy-consuming products. It was lower than 2011; the growth rate in the central region was slightly higher than the national average.
(II) The power supply capacity will further increase, and the impact of slowdown in thermal power will gradually appear. It is understood that in order to speed up the adjustment of the power industry, the relevant national authorities plan to start 20 million kilowatts of hydropower in 2012 and organize the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-year Planâ€. The second batch of wind power projects with a scale of 15-18 million kilowatts will be built and the first batch of 3 million kilowatts of solar power development plans will be completed. Nuclear power projects are also expected to open for gate approval. According to calculations, the completion of investment in the country's power engineering construction is expected to exceed 730 billion yuan, of which about 350 billion yuan in power supply and 380 billion yuan in the power grid. Although the total investment scale is relatively large, the completed investment in thermal power will decrease compared with the previous year.
It is estimated that in 2012, the country’s newly installed infrastructure will have an installed capacity of 85 million kilowatts, including 20 million kilowatts of hydropower, 50 million kilowatts of thermal power, and 1 million kilowatts of nuclear power (another unit of the Fujian Ningde Nuclear Power Plant will have production conditions), with 14 million in wind power connected to the grid. Kilowatts, grid-connected solar power generation is about 1 million kilowatts. At the end of the year, the country’s installed power generation capacity reached approximately 1.14 billion kilowatts, including 250 million kilowatts of hydropower, 815 million kilowatts of thermal power, 13.57 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 59 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power, and 3 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar power.
Affected by the delay of project approval, coupled with poor profitability of thermal power and severely impaired investment capability of enterprises, resulting in insufficient investment in thermal power and slower construction speed, it is expected that the scale of new thermal power projects will continue to be smaller than the scale of operation in 2012, and the amount of thermal power investment and thermal power will increase. The scale will also decline from the previous year. It is estimated that the thermal power installed capacity at the end of the year will increase by about 6.5% from the previous year, still lower than the growth of electricity and electricity consumption, and the power supply and demand balance protection capability will be weakened. The future impact will be further manifested.
(III) There are many influencing factors of power supply, and the risk is relatively high. 1. The bottleneck of transportation is more severe. In some regions, the supply of coal will remain tight. The high price of thermal coal will be judged based on factors such as the power generation development trend of each type of unit. The national coal consumption will exceed 2.1 billion tons, an increase of 150 million tons from 2011, and coal demand will remain strong. According to the current calculation of the proportion of coal consumption in coal consumption at around 50%, it needs to increase the supply of raw coal by about 300 million tons, and there is a significant gap between the relevant national authorities and the estimated new coal production of only 200 million tons. This year's coal supply and coal prices have caused greater pressure. At the same time, the new railway capacity in 2012 is relatively low, and the bottleneck of electric coal transportation will remain one of the prominent contradictions that restrict the effective supply of electric coal. Some provinces are significantly constrained by the transport capacity, and are even more prominent in the dry season or in the year of dry season. Therefore, it is expected that the total amount of coal and transportation capacity will remain tight in 2012, and regional and seasonal tight issues will remain prominent. In the event of a relatively low demand for hydropower or a large increase in demand, the contradiction between supply and demand will remain prominent in some areas and at certain times. It will have a significant impact on the balance between electricity supply and demand.
Since the end of 2011, the state has issued a series of policies and measures that will, to a certain extent, reduce the operating pressure of thermal power companies and will be very beneficial to ensuring the power supply. However, taking into account factors such as the decline in the proportion of key contract coal, bundling sales, and coal price adjustments, the market price of coal in 2012 is still not optimistic, and the country's coal-to-plant (field) prices will continue to face greater upward pressure.
2. The extreme weather and the overall dryness of incoming water have a greater impact on supply and demand. Along with the increase in urbanization level and the level of electrification of residents, air-conditioning load accounts for the largest increase in the proportion of electricity load. Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other economically developed regions have already More than 30%, the level of air-conditioning load in other regions is gradually increasing, during the summer air temperature on the impact of electricity load is more and more significant. Judging from the frequent occurrence of extreme weather in recent years, extreme climates in our country are frequent and tend to appear continuously. Considering that the load that has not been released in 2011 without continuous high-temperature weather may be released in the second year, it is still necessary to pay attention to the possibility of extreme high-temperature weather during the summer peak season and the impact on the power guarantee capacity and the balance of power supply and demand in 2012. .
By the end of 2011, the adjustable water and storage values ​​of key hydropower plants nationwide have dropped by 14.2% and 27.2% year-on-year, respectively. The hydropower situation is not satisfactory. The significant decline in energy storage value will adversely affect hydropower production and electricity supply in 2012. It is initially expected that the overall situation of incoming water in 2012 will be slightly better than in 2011, but it is still generally dry. In particular, the arrival of water in summer is still severe.
(D) In ​​2012, the overall power supply and demand in the country was tight, and regional, seasonal, and seasonal power shortages were still outstanding. Under the condition of guaranteeing normal coal supply and incoming water, the overall electricity supply and demand in the country was tight in 2012, with surplus among regions. Coexisting with power shortages, especially taking into account the reduction in new installed capacity of thermal power plants, unbalanced distribution of newly installed power plants, inconsistent power supply and power grid construction, and other factors such as temperature, incoming water, coal supply, and coal quality decline Affected by random factors, it is expected that the nation's electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent, with a maximum power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts.
From a seasonal perspective, in the first quarter, due to factors such as the Spring Festival and slowing demand, the country’s electricity supply and demand situation eased, and the gap was small; Before the summer peak season, the impact of hydropower and other factors was significant, and the contradiction between power supply and demand in Central China and South China was prominent. The gap is large, and the nation’s largest power gap is close to 30 million kilowatts. During the summer peak season, with the release of high-temperature weather and air-conditioning load, the contradiction between supply and demand in the east, north, and south areas is outstanding. Under normal circumstances, the country’s largest electricity gap is about 30 million kilowatts. In the event of sustained high temperatures, drought, etc., the power gap is likely to further expand to 40 million kilowatts. It is estimated that the annual utilization time of power generation equipment will be around 4,750 hours, slightly higher than in 2011; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment will be 5,300-5,400 hours, which is less than 100 hours less than in 2011. In terms of subregions:
The power supply and demand of North China Grid is generally tight. Temperature and thermal coal have a great influence on the balance of power supply and demand. The maximum gap in the summer peak period is about 7 million kilowatts. The supply and demand of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, Hebei South-Net, and Shandong Power are basically balanced, and there is a small gap during the peak season in summer; Shanxi's power supply capacity is basically sufficient, but the supply and demand situation still depends on the supply of electricity coal; the supply and demand balance of Inner Mongolia’s western power grid is more than adequate.
The power supply and demand of East China Power Grid is tight. It is particularly prominent during peak summer, with the largest power shortage in the entire network exceeding 12 million kilowatts. The power supply and demand in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are tight, among which there is insufficient supply capacity in Zhejiang, and there is a large power shortage in the summer peak season; the supply and demand of electricity in Shanghai and Anhui are basically balanced, and there is a certain gap in the summer peak season; there is a small surplus in the supply and demand balance in Fujian.
The power supply and demand of Huazhong Power Grid is tight. The supply and demand situation is significantly affected by the supply of water and coal. During the dry season, the power gap is about 10 million kilowatts. The power shortage in the summer has been reduced. The gap depends on the situation of incoming water in the flood season. Henan has a tight supply of electricity during the summer peak season, and the size of the gap depends on the supply of coal; Hubei has a basic balance in the summer and there is a certain gap in the dry season; Hunan and Jiangxi have tight supply and demand during the summer peak season, and supply and demand are tight during the dry season; electricity supply for most of the Sichuan period There are surpluses, and there is a certain gap during the dry season; Chongqing's power supply capacity is insufficient, and power supply and demand are tight during the year.
Northeast Power Grid has a surplus of electricity supply. There is a certain surplus in the supply and demand balance of Liaoning's electric power; there are more electric power surpluses in Jilin and Heilongjiang; there is more than enough power supply and demand balance in Mengdong Power Grid. The utilization hours of the entire network of thermal power equipment are less than 4000 hours, and it is difficult for wind power to be absorbed during heating.
The power supply and demand balance of the Northwest Power Grid has a slight surplus. Shaanxi's power supply and demand are basically balanced, but the supply and demand situation is greatly affected by the coal supply; Gansu has a certain surplus of electricity; Ningxia's delivery mission is heavy and the supply and demand are basically balanced; Qinghai's electricity supply and demand are generally tight, and the power demand and supply in the dry season are tight; There is a slight surplus; Tibet's electricity supply and demand balance after the Qinghai-Tibet network.
Southern Power Grid has a tight supply and demand of electricity. Insufficient supply of water and tight coal supply are the key factors affecting the balance between electricity supply and demand. The largest gap in the entire network before the flood season exceeded 10 million kilowatts, and the gap decreased slightly during summer. Among them, Guangdong's power supply and demand are tight, and the second quarter is even more prominent; Guangxi has a tight water supply during the dry season; Guizhou is sending less electricity, electricity supply and demand are still tight, and the supply and demand situation is severely constrained by the water supply and power supply; Yunnan's electricity supply and demand are tight, and the water supply period is tight. The basic balance of electricity supply and demand; Hainan power supply and demand overall balance.
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