The polysilicon industry, which has entered the winter since the second half of last year, has ushered in warmth after the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the prices of imported polysilicon and silicon wafers have rebounded. The price of domestic polysilicon for individual companies has increased by 10%, and the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has also increased significantly. Some companies have raised their prices by 3%. Analysts believe that the price of photovoltaic cells will be adjusted upwards. Due to the particularly strong rush in Europe in the first quarter, short-term orders are in good condition, and the photovoltaic industry is more optimistic in the first quarter. Over-expected rebound in the first quarter In 2011, especially in the second half of the year, the price of products in the entire industrial chain of solar photovoltaics continued to fall. According to data from Baichuan Information, the international polysilicon price in mid-May 2011 was US$75/kg. Since then, it has fallen to US$31.75/kg in early February 2012. In the past 8 months, the price of polysilicon has dropped by US$43.25 per kilogram. The decline was as high as 57.67%. At the same time, photovoltaic downstream products such as silicon wafers, batteries, and modules have also seen significant declines. The major listed companies in the PV, Sun Day, Sunflower, and Japan New Energy, have been expected to experience a sharp decline in performance, and the main reason for the decline is that the sharp drop in prices has caused the company's gross profit to drop significantly or to accumulate inventory losses. However, since December 2011, the price of polysilicon has rebounded and is still continuing. Analysts pointed out that on the one hand, the global installed capacity in 2011 exceeded market expectations, partially digesting the previous high inventory. According to the latest report released by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, the installed capacity of global PV grid-connected systems increased to 27.7GW in 2011, an increase of 11GW compared with last year. On the other hand, the market subsidizes the photovoltaic subsidies of European countries such as Germany and Italy. Uncertainty concerns have caused the rush to install solar power plants in Europe. The short-term orders in the photovoltaic industry are in good condition and the operating rate has increased. "This kind of rush effect will continue until the end of the first quarter." Zhang Hao, an analyst at Haitong Securities, pointed out that the polysilicon price rebound was only a short-lived one, but the relevant manufacturers continued to receive orders and bargain during the winter holiday, and the downstream orders continued after the Spring Festival. Entering the market, the production lines of related manufacturers are also fully loaded. Affected by this, the price of the upstream silicon material has increased, and the silicon wafer and the battery chip have also rebounded slightly. It is difficult to be optimistic throughout the year. It is worth noting that although the prices of upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers and battery chips have risen, the price of components has remained basically unchanged. At the same time, PV module prices have fallen below the cost line of many companies, and some companies have been forced to suspend production. Zhou Ziguang, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that although demand has increased, large inventories and excess production are still the pressure of component price increases. “In 2012, the PV industry is generally not optimistic.†Zhang Hao pointed out that Germany and Italy had taken 60% of the global installed capacity in 2011, but this year they decided to gradually reduce PV subsidies, which will inevitably affect the installed demand. At the same time, the United States recently made a preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy emergency case against the Chinese solar cell (board) double counter-offer, setting the tone for the PV double-reverse case on March 12. Analysts pointed out that China's PV companies will be worsened by then, in addition to affecting the export of most Chinese companies to the US market, the most worrying is that the "double-reverse" investigation may spread to Europe. Zhang Yuande, an analyst at Founder Securities, pointed out that in the context of the expected decline in photovoltaic industry subsidies and the continued decline in the industry's prosperity in developed countries such as Europe, the focus of future PV development will gradually tilt toward the Asia-Pacific region. He introduced that the current domestic renewable energy price is raised to 0.8 points/kWh, and the “12th Five-Year†solar power generation target is raised to 15GW, which will benefit the development of the photovoltaic industry. However, the short-term market and demand cannot be completely switched, and the price of polysilicon enters the building. The bottom process is not expected to pick up until the second quarter of next year.
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