China's energy development faces six major contradictions

The Director of the Department of Policies and Regulations of the National Energy Administration, Zeng Yachuan, pointed out at the fourth “Energy, Power, and Development” forum held recently that China’s current energy development is facing prominent contradictions in six areas. In the next eight years of building a well-to-do society in an all-round way, the situation of energy reform and development is very serious and the task is very arduous; if major reforms are not carried out and development methods and concepts are not completely changed, it will be difficult to complete the historic task of supporting the construction of a well-off society.

The six major contradictions mentioned by Zeng Yachuan include: The contradiction between the rapid growth of internal demand and the increasing external pressure. Internally, China’s per capita GDP just exceeded 5,000 US dollars last year, and it is at a critical stage of industrialization and urbanization. The urbanization rate has increased from the current 51% to 60% in 2020, and urban residents have to increase more than 160 million people. It will be an important force to promote the growth of future energy and electricity consumption; at this stage, China’s economic structure and its position in the international division of labor structure also determine that China’s total energy and electricity consumption will maintain a certain rate of growth. However, from the outside, looking at the progress of world economic development, the overwhelming majority of developed countries used 5-8 years to achieve a doubling of GDP from 50,000 to 10,000 U.S. dollars. The U.S., Germany, France, Britain, and Japan are five to eight years old. In total, the total energy consumption only increased by 13.8%, 8%, 12%, 5%, and 1.8%, respectively; over the past decade, the growth of energy consumption in these countries has further slowed, and some countries have even experienced negative growth. China is currently the world’s largest consumer of energy, with total consumption accounting for more than 20% of the world’s total. With the intensification of international energy resource competition, the difficulty of obtaining energy from abroad is further increased. The environmental, ecological, and safety issues caused by excessive total volume have become increasingly prominent, and constraints on climate change and other aspects will increase.

The contradiction between fairness and efficiency. The per capita energy consumption in China has just reached the world average level, but there is a large gap between urban and rural areas, and the general service level is low. Some regions and most of the rural areas have poor conditions and low energy use. From an efficiency point of view, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is not only higher than that of industrialized countries, but also higher than that of Brazil, Mexico, and other developing countries. It should be said that energy efficiency is very low, waste is severe, neither fair nor efficient, and energy conservation and energy efficiency are improved. There is great potential for efficiency.

Adjust the contradiction between energy structure and security. Coal accounts for 70% of China's primary energy. Large-scale and high-intensity development and utilization of coal have made outstanding contributions to ensuring energy security on the one hand, and ecological environment damage on the other. At present, the proportion of new energy and renewable energy is still very low. If we increase the proportion of oil and gas consumption, it will inevitably bring about further increase in its foreign dependence, and the protection of national economic security and energy security will face a more severe situation.

Develop the contradiction between quantity and quality. Judging from the quantity, China's current growth targets such as total energy production, total consumption and coal production, power installations, hydropower installations, wind power installations, nuclear power generation, and photovoltaic power generation all rank first in the world. However, from the standpoint of development quality, the entire scientific and technological innovation capability in the energy sector is still not strong, and many key technologies and equipment still rely on foreign countries.

The contradiction between the scale of energy power and the ability and level of energy management is very prominent. In terms of total economic output, China has become the second largest economy in the world. However, in terms of the scale of energy and power, it has preceded our economic, military, diplomatic and cultural fields, and has become the world's first in advance. However, at the same time, our management philosophy, development methods, management levels and capabilities, and management teams do not match the status of the world’s largest energy country.

Inconsistent contradictions. In the coming period, the willingness of various localities and departments to grow will continue to be very strong, which will certainly put new demands on the ability of energy security and supply. However, at present, from the perspective of some regions, the installed capacity of the country is not low, and it has no environmental capacity. From the perspective of the whole country, the control of total energy consumption is imperative and very urgent. This will inevitably lead to increasingly deep contradictions, and the game will become increasingly fierce.

Zeng Yachuan emphasized that if these contradictions are not resolved properly, they will inevitably affect the scientific development of China's energy power in the future, and the dual goals of building a well-to-do society and building a beautiful China will be difficult to take into account. Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to promote energy production and consumption.